The republicans will keep it close with their hate machine, and will focus on wedge issues such as gay rights.
I also expect a lot of race baiting from the right wing nutjobs, including Faux News commentators.
It will be close, but at the end of the day, Obama will coast. 
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"**** Saddam, we're taking him out."–"W" Bush to Senators,Mar 2002, 1 yr before war
"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended.In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed."–"W",May 2003
"He has not developed any significant capability with respect to weapons of mass destruction.He is unable to project conventional power against his neighbors"-Colin Powell,Feb 2001
"We are able to keep arms from him. His military forces have not been rebuilt"-Condi Rice,Jul 2001
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