Trying to look at this one objectively, and will break it down by position. Interestingly enough, my initial thought on this game was that Cal would win. After looking more closely at the two teams, however, I pick
MSU.
I'm obviously more informed about
MSU than about Cal, and am going off of projected depth charts and stats for many positions, so who knows. Further, I just have no idea at some key positions.
Based on the analysis below, I think
MSU has the better team overall. Cal has playmakers, though, playing at home in a national night game with high expectations.
Nevertheless, we do have quite a bit of experience and, hopefully, composure at the key positions. I also think that throughout the game, we will wear them down, on both offense and defense. We should be able to control the clock on offense and rest our D. Greg Jones will be the difference maker on D as he will line up all over the field and create mismatches.
In the end, two things help us. First, we should be able to move and tire their defensive line. Second, we have more experience, on balance, at the skill positions. I think we control the clock and they make more mistakes, which makes the difference in a game between two pretty evenly matched teams.
MSU 31
Cal 24
QB: Slight edge to MSU. Hoyer had a solid year and is the second-year starter in a known system. Cal starts a largely unknown quantity in Kevin Riley, though he did perform relatively well in action last year in limited action. I think Hoyer's experience is the key here, and really believe he will have learned from many of the mistakes he made last year.
RB: Slight edge to MSU. Cal must replace a very productive back in Justin Forsett, while
MSU has a senior stud in Ringer, though he is coming back from injury. Cal's Jahvid Best was a prized recruit and looked good in some action last year, but hasn't yet shown that he can carry the load throughout the game while taking the pounding we will put on him. Depth at RB seems to be a question mark for both teams.
FB: No idea, so I'll say push.
OL vs. DL, rushing: Edge to MSU. O-lines: Cal 4 SR, 1 SO at LG.
MSU 2 SR, 2 JR, 1 FR at LG. Both teams breaking in two new starters. Cal front line on defense supposedly "soft," though quick.
MSU front 4 anchored by Justin Kershaw, with senior Brandon Long and transfer Trevor Anderson. I think it's a push on OL, with our DL looking better. Teams ran on largely this same DL last year. A lot. We will too.
OL vs. DL, passing: Slight edge to Cal. Quickness and big Mike Tepper at the blindside Tackle position. Our OL is capable, but Cal's front line on D may be too quick.
WR: Edge to MSU. We bring back two experienced starters, they are breaking in a new corps. Loss of Devin Thomas obviously hurts, but Dell showed promise last year and Hoyer/Curry really seem to have developed a connection.
TE: No idea. I'm not too impressed with Gantt, but don't know much otherwise. He'll probably be the difference maker with 12 receptions.
LB: Slight edge to MSU. Greg Jones and Eric Gordon for
MSU. Three returning seniors for Cal. I think Greg Jones is going to be a huge presence this year, and probably will be the best LB on the field, with the ability to line up at several positions and create mismatches, stop the run, cover receivers, and blitz the QB. He's the difference here.
CB: Push. I actually like our experience and depth here, along with the improvement these guys have made since Dantonio took over. cal breaking in some new starters. All else equal I would give the nod to
MSU, but given our performance at CB over the last few years, I am calling it a push.
S: Edge to Cal. Both teams breaking in one new safety. Otis Wiley is a stud. But the loss of Jenrette will hurt, particularly because it happened so recently.
K/P: I'll call it a push. No real clue here.
Returns: Again, no idea. I'm guessing they'll use Best as their main return man, which may tip the balance toward Cal. But this one is just too hard to tell going into the year.
Coaching: Slight edge to MSU. I am very impressed with Dantonio, and have been impressed with Tedford over the years. The difference, I think, is that Dantonio gets the most out of all positions, whereas Tedford doesn't seem to focus on defense as much.
Setting: Edge to Cal. First game, nationally televised night game, at Cal, a long way from home.