Talk me out of taking Brady #1 overall

Keyboard Toughguy · 08-04-2008, 07:20 PM

10 teams, I have the first pick.

10 yds rushing/receiving for 1 pt.
20 yds passing for 1 pt.
All TDs are 6 pts.

Even if Brady falls down to high 30s, low 40s TDs....he has gotta be my first pick right?

Please talk me out of this.

I am at 1/20...If I go Brady, I will probably take someone like R. Bush at 20.

Is Brady/Bush better than LT/Brees?

VinAZ · 08-04-2008, 07:53 PM

Yes, LT/Brees is much better. You can't assume he'll have another 50 TD season. Hell, Brees may just match him...he had a horrible start last year (I know, as a former owner), but still ended up with great #s. If he stays consistent all year, he could realistically hit 40.

Bottom line, the distance between Brady and Brees may not be all that big. The distance between LT and Bush (or any other RB you're likely to get @ #20) is HUGE...

...and even if you don't get Brees or Romo, you can still wait til later in the draft to pick 2 solid QBs and play matchups all year and get solid overall production from the position.

Fred Garvin · 08-05-2008, 12:04 PM

VinAZ's right on this one.

Plus, Brady's a Wolverine. C'mon, dude!

Sparty10 · 08-05-2008, 10:49 PM

Patriots do have the easiest schedule in NFL history this year.

Kenny Powers · 08-06-2008, 10:56 AM

I see Brady as a trap this year. Back a few years ago when Manning came off of that great year he followed it up with a so so year. Ds will adjust to Brady and Pats passing game. He will have great numbers but not last year great. Go with LT.

Keyboard Toughguy · 08-07-2008, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by izzo75

I see Brady as a trap this year. Back a few years ago when Manning came off of that great year he followed it up with a so so year. Ds will adjust to Brady and Pats passing game. He will have great numbers but not last year great. Go with LT.

I feel you...but I am definitely a bit torn. The schedule is so easy....Belichick is still an ******* and will likely want to extract revenge and run-up the score on the league. Having a bit of a chip on the shoulder from the Super Bowl can't hurt either.

If I pass on Brady, he throws 45 tds - guaranteed.

Grtfmsu · 08-13-2008, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bart Rosenver

10 teams, I have the first pick.

10 yds rushing/receiving for 1 pt.
20 yds passing for 1 pt.
All TDs are 6 pts.

Even if Brady falls down to high 30s, low 40s TDs....he has gotta be my first pick right?

Please talk me out of this.

I am at 1/20...If I go Brady, I will probably take someone like R. Bush at 20.

Is Brady/Bush better than LT/Brees?

Brady's my keeper, but if I had the number one pick I would never ever ever consider taking a quarterback with it. Your league has a heavy passing weighting though with that 1 point for 20 yards (most leagues do 50), so it may make sense. I always go RB, RB in the first two rounds though.

Ezekiel P. Jebediah · 08-15-2008, 11:23 AM

I would definitely consider it....if not do it for sure. Brady will not have a huge fall off this year. Pencil him in for a minimum of 35 TDs. Others may match that, but who knows who it will be - Romo? Brees? Manning? Palmer? Brady is a sure thing to be a top point getter barring injury.

Defenses will not "adjust" to the Patriots passing offense. The only adjustment they can make is to get redic amounts of pressure with their front four, and guess what, there are only a handful of teams in the league - if that - that can do that. You blitz - Brady calmly finds the hot route. You play zone, he'll throw it underneath you all day. BB will not take his foot off the pedal, and he likely won't start running the ball until December again this year.

Consider a league I'm in which awards 5 pts per PATD and 6 pts per RuReTD, so it has a slightly smaller QB bias than yours. Brady scored ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN more points than the next closest player in the league last year - Randy Moss (435 to 320). LT had a typical outstanding year with almost 1500 yards and 18 TDs, and Brady had roughly SIXTY percent more points than LT. In this league, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th top point getters were also QBs but Brady had roughly 150 more points than the 2nd highest QB (Romo). Adrian Peterson had less than half the amount of points as Brady.

If you think you can get Romo or Manning or Brees with the 20th pick, it might be worth considering, but I'm guessing they'll all be gone in a QB heavy league like that. In this league, Brady + MJD + Jamal Lewis = roughly 800 points. LT + Carson Palmer + TO = roughly 700 points.

Yeah, you people stick to your fallacies about why it's dumb to take a QB first.