Don't want to spam, because my site is purely for fun, but I have already put major research into the upcoming season starting in June.
Yeah, I've had too much time on my hands. Here is a summary of what I've put together so far, and I love to answer questions so feel free to ask me them here or e-mail me at
thesundaycapper@yahoo.com. Obviously with all of this research I also have a decent handle on FF stuff.
I have already put together an extensive preview for the upcoming season, including schedule analysis and win total projections. Let me briefly explain what I did here, and what my reasoning was.
My first order of business was to analyze all 32 teams in-depth. I did this by looking at their existing personnel, their results from last season, injury analysis, added offseason personnel through FA and the draft, coaching changes, etc. Once this analysis was done, I put together a brief write up for each team and gave each team a rating from 1-10, with 10 being the highest. I will call this rating a team’s “MORC” factor. A team's "MORC" is simply a high-level rating of how good I perceive them to be, other factors such as schedule/division etc not taken into consideration.
After I had a MORC for each team, I moved on to 2009 schedule analysis. I did not do a simple 2008 winning percentage strength of schedule, rather, I felt that the analysis needed to be more objective and consider offseason changes, as well as home and away factors. What I did was I added up the MORC for each team on any given schedule. I then added a slight modifier based on whether the game was home or away. The modifier is slightly more impactful for what I perceive to be the “better” teams in the league. Basically, this ensures that a road game against a Pittsburgh, or a New England has a bigger impact relatively on schedule rating vs. a road game against a Detroit.
After this analysis was complete, I put together my estimate of 2009 wins.
I am publishing all of this information on my site. I am going to add the schedule difficulty rating and projected win total to my write up and analysis of each team.
*Please note that this analysis was done initially in June. I will be going through and modifying accordingly to make sure that any changes to date have been accounted for in the coming days. Please also note that I need to format the hell out of the recently posted content on my site, but I've been too damn lazy to do so, as of late.
If you want me to post my schedule difficulty rating, my projected win totals, or whatever here, let me know.
EDIT - UGH, formatting is still a nightmare. Ignore the site for now, just let me know if you have any questions I can help you with or if you want me to post anything specific here for now.
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