Tracking the Tigers in the offseason

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nicho197

Zumaya is the man in the future, not yet. He still needs more experience and seasoning. If he is the closer this year, barring a miraculous improvement, it will be a disaster. Jones may not have been pretty, but he got the job done.

Jones is more than not pretty. He gets saves, which are perhaps the most over-rated statistic in baseball. It's completely situation and not a reflection on how well a pitcher actually pitched. If you look at metrics that measure actual performance, you won't find a worse closer on a playoff-level team than Todd Jones, and you can add a few handful of non-playoff teams to the list of teams that have a better end-of-game option than Todd.

I think there wouldn't even be a question about Zumaya if he hadn't gotten hurt last season. Still, the Tigers need to upgrade their closing situation and the owe it to themselves to find out if Joel is the answer. If Todd is plan B or plan C, that's great. A veteran fall-back option is needed given the untested waters we'd be treading with Zumaya or Rodney.

But combining Todd's performance (or lack of) and the rising skill set of Zumaya, there's every reason to explore that option fully.........

bulldogg · 11-01-2007, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Jones is more than not pretty. He gets saves, which are perhaps the most over-rated statistic in baseball. It's completely situation and not a reflection on how well a pitcher actually pitched. If you look at metrics that measure actual performance, you won't find a worse closer on a playoff-level team than Todd Jones, and you can add a few handful of non-playoff teams to the list of teams that have a better end-of-game option than Todd.

I think there wouldn't even be a question about Zumaya if he hadn't gotten hurt last season. Still, the Tigers need to upgrade their closing situation and the owe it to themselves to find out if Joel is the answer. If Todd is plan B or plan C, that's great. A veteran fall-back option is needed given the untested waters we'd be treading with Zumaya or Rodney.

But combining Todd's performance (or lack of) and the rising skill set of Zumaya, there's every reason to explore that option fully.........

Just released today. Jones is a Type B FA. It would have been nice if all those saves skewed it and he was a Type A.

Oh, and Schilling is a Type A. That means - no way that I would sign him if I were the Tigers ... they would lose their first round pick.

EDIT: Rogers and Casey are Type Bs too.

Spartan Punk · 11-01-2007, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Jones is more than not pretty. He gets saves, which are perhaps the most over-rated statistic in baseball. It's completely situation and not a reflection on how well a pitcher actually pitched. If you look at metrics that measure actual performance, you won't find a worse closer on a playoff-level team than Todd Jones, and you can add a few handful of non-playoff teams to the list of teams that have a better end-of-game option than Todd..

Joe Borowski. What is your next ignorant claim?

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartan Punk

Joe Borowski. What is your next ignorant claim?

Wow...what a compliment to Jones.

Borowski is comparable to Todd. Arguring which one is worse is a tough one. Both offer lots of save, a high ERA, and no metrics to indicate they're effective pitchers outside of saves.....

Borowski - 45 saves, 5.07 ERA, .289 BA against

Jones - 38 saves, 4.38 ERA, .267 BA against

If saves are the big indicator to argue Todd is good, then Borowski has him beat, right?! 45 saves is "getting the job done" according to the logic that defends Jones.......

MSU ROX · 11-01-2007, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Jones is more than not pretty. He gets saves, which are perhaps the most over-rated statistic in baseball. It's completely situation and not a reflection on how well a pitcher actually pitched. If you look at metrics that measure actual performance, you won't find a worse closer on a playoff-level team than Todd Jones, and you can add a few handful of non-playoff teams to the list of teams that have a better end-of-game option than Todd.

I think there wouldn't even be a question about Zumaya if he hadn't gotten hurt last season. Still, the Tigers need to upgrade their closing situation and the owe it to themselves to find out if Joel is the answer. If Todd is plan B or plan C, that's great. A veteran fall-back option is needed given the untested waters we'd be treading with Zumaya or Rodney.

But combining Todd's performance (or lack of) and the rising skill set of Zumaya, there's every reason to explore that option fully.........

In my opinion, the 9th inning is probably the most difficult, mentally for a pitcher. That is why you just cant throw ANYONE out there. I see your point about it being an overrated stat, but bottom line, you gotta have the intestinal fortitude to get through that. Especially in big time pressure situations.

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSU ROX

In my opinion, the 9th inning is probably the most difficult, mentally for a pitcher. That is why you just cant throw ANYONE out there. I see your point about it being an overrated stat, but bottom line, you gotta have the intestinal fortitude to get through that. Especially in big time pressure situations.

Sure, but if you're hoping to win championships, isn't is preferable to have a closer who has both the intestinal fortitude and is an effective pitcher?! Look around at teams that are comparable to the Tigers in expectations. They're not willing to settle for one or the other. It's time to turn the page on Todd and seek a higher level of performance from that slot..........

MSU ROX · 11-01-2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Sure, but if you're hoping to win championships, isn't is preferable to have a closer who has both the intestinal fortitude and is an effective pitcher?! Look around at teams that are comparable to the Tigers in expectations. They're not willing to settle for one or the other. It's time to turn the page on Todd and seek a higher level of performance from that slot..........

So, what is your solution for the 08' Tigers? Acquire someone via FA? Or should we put Zoom in there?

P Rob · 11-01-2007, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Sure, but if you're hoping to win championships, isn't is preferable to have a closer who has both the intestinal fortitude and is an effective pitcher?! Look around at teams that are comparable to the Tigers in expectations. They're not willing to settle for one or the other. It's time to turn the page on Todd and seek a higher level of performance from that slot..........

cause those kinds of closers are growing on trees.

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSU ROX

So, what is your solution for the 08' Tigers? Acquire someone via FA? Or should we put Zoom in there?

As I've said, I think the Tigers should go into the spring with their minds open. Let's find out if Zumaya is ready. He's got the make-up and velocity to be effective. Let's also take a look at Rodney as another option. But let's also bring in a veteran who could step into that role if needed, but would otherwise be useful in a set-up role. If that's Todd Jones, that'd be fine. But it's time to take a hard and long look at other options in the system.

For a playoff-level team, Todd is pretty clearly a plan B/C closer at this point in his career......

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P Rob

cause those kinds of closers are growing on trees.

No, you'll usually find them developed through farm systems as opposed to be acquired through trades. Heading into '08, I'd argue that Zumaya and/or Rodney would be better closing options than Todd Jones. Raise your expectations. Todd Jones is the definition of mediocrity at the position......

Spartan Punk · 11-01-2007, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Wow...what a compliment to Jones.

Borowski is comparable to Todd. Arguring which one is worse is a tough one. Both offer lots of save, a high ERA, and no metrics to indicate they're effective pitchers outside of saves.....

Borowski - 45 saves, 5.07 ERA, .289 BA against

Jones - 38 saves, 4.38 ERA, .267 BA against

If saves are the big indicator to argue Todd is good, then Borowski has him beat, right?! 45 saves is "getting the job done" according to the logic that defends Jones.......

You made the claim that no playoff level team had a closer who was wosre than Jones. Borowski had a higher WHIP, ERA and batting average against. Not sure why you have such a hard time accepting that Jones is a better than average closer. He is usually right around the average for mid level closers in save percentage, which is the most important stat for closers. No one's claiming he is one of the best out there, but to say he is medicore is wrong. And your ERA is wrong for Jones, which doesn't surprise me.

AUAlum06 · 11-01-2007, 12:50 PM

what is the difference in types for FAs?

excuse my ignorance on this one

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartan Punk

Not sure why you have such a hard time accepting that Jones is a better than average closer. He is usually right around the average for mid level closers in save percentage, which is the most important stat for closers. No one's claiming he is one of the best out there, but to say he is medicore is wrong. And your ERA is wrong for Jones, which doesn't surprise me.

I'd strongly disagree that save percentage offers the most important insight into the effectiveness of a closer. Again, it's completely situation and only indicates whether a closer hasn't screwed up. Not blowing a save isn't the same thing as being an effective pitcher.

Pitching well isn't measure by that at all, and those other metrics show how truly mediorce Jones is.......

P.S. Sorry about the ERA mistake. My apologies. It's actually worse than what I posted....

AUAlum06 · 11-01-2007, 12:53 PM

Zoom getting hurt was the worst thing that could happen to the closer position for this season

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AUAlum06

Zoom getting hurt was the worst thing that could happen to the closer position for this season

I agree. I think there wouldn't even be a question about having Todd back next year had Zumaya not been injured. Heck, I think by the end of '07, we would've seen Joel in the closer role if not for that.

But whether Joel is ready or not is a question that needs to be answered. Separate from that is the clear fact that Todd Jones is a mediocre closer and a liability on a team with legitimate championship aspirations. The question of who is our closer clearly needs to be opened and I'm glad to see indications that the Tigers view Zumaya as the potential closer next year and Todd as a back-up plan if he's back (Detroit News article yesterday).

Dombrowski seems to agree with my view, much as that pains those who like mediocrity..........

Spartan Punk · 11-01-2007, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

I'd strongly disagree that save percentage offers the most important insight into the effectiveness of a closer. Again, it's completely situation and only indicates whether a closer hasn't screwed up. Not blowing a save isn't the same thing as being an effective pitcher.

Pitching well isn't measure by that at all, and those other metrics show how truly mediorce Jones is.......

P.S. Sorry about the ERA mistake. My apologies. It's actually worse than what I posted....

Jim Leyland disagrees with you about Jones and about save percentage. I value his opinion at lot more than yours. Would I like to see Zumaya show in spring training that he can do the job? Yes. But having Jones as the closer isn't going to hurt the Tiger's at all. And again, you're still wrong on Jones' ERA. But I don't expect you to look it up or anything.

AASpartan · 11-01-2007, 01:03 PM

I haven't seen enough consistency from Zumaya to make me even want to think about handing the closer role over to him. There aren't a plethora of closers out there that the Tigers are somehow missing.

AUAlum06 · 11-01-2007, 01:03 PM

Jones era was 4.26 according to ESPN

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartan Punk

Jim Leyland disagrees with you about Jones and about save percentage. I value his opinion at lot more than yours.

Odd how the Tigers are looking to move on from Jones and his stellar save percentage...........

Leyland is always looking to support his players. Good for him. That doesn't mean he's always telling fans the truth...........

AASpartan · 11-01-2007, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

P.S. Sorry about the ERA mistake. My apologies. It's actually worse than what I posted....

Quote:

Originally Posted by AUAlum06

Jones era was 4.26 according to ESPN

And a 4.26 according to MLB. Don't know how that is somehow worse than 4.38.

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 01:14 PM

By the way, Todd Jones in terms of save percentage is still behind.......

Nathan, K-Rod, Rivera, Jenks, Ryan, Otsuka, Ray, Gonalez, Saito, Hoffman, Wagner, Chad Cordero, and Tom Gordon. 14th out of 30 closers. How is that an argument that he's not mediocre?!

Spartan Punk · 11-01-2007, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

Odd how the Tigers are looking to move on from Jones and his stellar save percentage...........

Leyland is always looking to support his players. Good for him. That doesn't mean he's always telling fans the truth...........

Odd how the Tiger's still want to talk to Jones about returning. Everyone is in agreement that the Tiger's would like to have Zumaya as their full time closer this year. The Tiger's want Jones back as insurance in case Zumaya isn't the answer. Why would that be if he is so medicore?

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AASpartan

And a 4.26 according to MLB.

Sorry...the site I went to was clearly wrong. Either way, it doesn't argue that Todd is anything other than mediocre as his ERA is behind.....

Papelbon, Ryan, K-Rod, Rivera, Otsuka, Putz, Ray, Saito, Hoffman, Cordero, Gordon, etc.... Somehow every stat out there shows Todd as clearly mediocre so saying he's "above average" just isn't supported by any facts............

jdbmst3k · 11-01-2007, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heathens '87

By the way, Todd Jones in terms of save percentage is still behind.......

Nathan, K-Rod, Rivera, Jenks, Ryan, Otsuka, Ray, Gonalez, Saito, Hoffman, Wagner, Chad Cordero, and Tom Gordon. 14th out of 30 closers. How is that an argument that he's not mediocre?!

Wow... Borowski isn't on that list?!? Guess that means you were wrong.

Heathens 87 · 11-01-2007, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spartan Punk

Odd how the Tiger's still want to talk to Jones about returning. Everyone is in agreement that the Tiger's would like to have Zumaya as their full time closer this year. The Tiger's want Jones back as insurance in case Zumaya isn't the answer. Why would that be if he is so medicore?

Mediocre closers are usually plan B/C options on playoff level teams. That's what they're looking at Todd for in '08. The Tigers see what I see. Why can't you?!