tOfficial Blu-ray vs. HD DVD discussion thread

[tuff bob]

Originally Posted by hexydes

You could probably build a redundant system with 20TB or so for around $100,000. That's nothing.

it's also too much

a fully loaded Sun X4500 with 48TB storage is $62k (with dual PSUs). Configuring the 48 disks correctly should mean no single point of failure.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by tuff bob

it's also too much

a fully loaded Sun X4500 with 48TB storage is $62k (with dual PSUs). Configuring the 48 disks correctly should mean no single point of failure.

Yeah, I just threw something out off the top of my head. To be fair, $100k probably gets you closer to an accurate estimate, after you factor in other costs (software, custom development, support for the hardware you buy, etc). None the less, the point either way is that building a system to serve this content, in terms of a corporation who deals with millions or billions of dollars, is insignificant.

[Babies Need Tickets]

Originally Posted by hexydes

Since clearly, you aren't very well-informed.

xbox360: HD DVD Xbox 360 binned because Warner switched to Blu-ray?

So you're accepting as unquestioned fact a story from "xboxer.tv," which according to its opening paragraphs is nothing more than a collection of other stories from message boards? Interesting that you are so quick, on the one hand, to accept this as fact, but yet, on the other hand, say you're so "surprised" by it. I would think with your level of surprise, you would require a little more than the hard-hitting analysis provided by "xboxer.tv."



My understanding is that the largest confirmed payoff (you know, from an actual news source) was $150 million, from Toshiba to Paramount.

Apparently that payoff didn't help much.

[SpartanGA]

so..........how do they control copy protection with a downloaded movie? Is it readable only by the device (be it a DVR or Xbox or other) and not a burnable/crackable or maybe not accessible dataform?

Or is this the same argument as music...........

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

So you're accepting as unquestioned fact a story from "xboxer.tv," which according to its opening paragraphs is nothing more than a collection of other stories from message boards? Interesting that you are so quick, on the one hand, to accept this as fact, but yet, on the other hand, say you're so "surprised" by it. I would think with your level of surprise, you would require a little more than the hard-hitting analysis provided by "xboxer.tv."

Why don't you follow the link to their sources? They got that information from AVSForums, from two different insiders with HD-DVD and one from Blu-Ray, all of whom are confirmed insiders and made insider-only information available there, before it was available to the public at large.

So yes, I do accept what they synopsized from the discussions at AVSForums (a very reputable source just on its own merit) to be fact. There's no reason not to.

My understanding is that the largest confirmed payoff (you know, from an actual news source) was $150 million, from Toshiba to Paramount.

Apparently that payoff didn't help much.

It didn't help because Sony and Blu-Ray paid Warner and Fox somewhere in the realm of $500 million (just in money, who knows what other incentives, such as lowered royalties on disk sales, etc), which was enough to get them to come to their side.

So Sony felt it was more important to pay studios to come over to their side, whereas Toshiba spent the bulk of their money subsidizing players and making them (as well as the movies) more affordable to the consumer. From a purely economical standpoint, I guess Sony was right, but from a consumer's standpoint, you just got severely ****ed over.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by smithsonga

so..........how do they control copy protection with a downloaded movie? Is it readable only by the device (be it a DVR or Xbox or other) and not a burnable/crackable or maybe not accessible dataform?

Or is this the same argument as music...........

They just use a proprietary format that has to perform a handshake with the software (and/or hardware) used to play the video. It's no different than how it works with Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.

[Babies Need Tickets]

Originally Posted by hexydes

Why don't you follow the link to their sources?

Okay, I tried. I read through a dozen pages or so of their link. I see people who "have been told" that money changed hands and think Warner would have moved to HD-DVD had Fox come along. Those same people wonder, without concluding, whether there was an actual deal in the works or whether the companies were just puffing to get money from Sony (like a coach would do in threatening to jump schools).

Maybe I missed something, so feel free to point that out. But I don't see any real story there, other than third hand information and speculation.

Here's what I think happened. Blu-ray was outselling HD-DVD by a pretty large margin. The movie execs saw Sony's/Blu-ray's appeal to consumers, much better marketing, and much better sales. They chose Blu-ray, went to Sony (or whomever) and said, look, give us some money and we'll end this thing right now.

I don't doubt someone got paid. In fact, I would be surprised if they didn't. That's business. But the long-term business prospects are what these guys care about most, and sufficient data showed that long-term, Blu-ray would bring more sales.

I guess my overall criticism of your initial post is that it assumes that the movie studios were all set to go HD-DVD until Sony came in with bags of cash. Such a position is completely presumptive and counter-intuitive given the sales data.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

Okay, I tried. I read through a dozen pages or so of their link. I see people who "have been told" that money changed hands and think Warner would have moved to HD-DVD had Fox come along. Those same people wonder, without concluding, whether there was an actual deal in the works or whether the companies were just puffing to get money from Sony (like a coach would do in threatening to jump schools).

Maybe I missed something, so feel free to point that out. But I don't see any real story there, other than third hand information and speculation.

Here's what I think happened. Blu-ray was outselling HD-DVD by a pretty large margin. The movie execs saw Sony's/Blu-ray's appeal to consumers, much better marketing, and much better sales. They chose Blu-ray, went to Sony (or whomever) and said, look, give us some money and we'll end this thing right now.

I don't doubt someone got paid. In fact, I would be surprised if they didn't. That's business. But the long-term business prospects are what these guys care about most, and sufficient data showed that long-term, Blu-ray would bring more sales.

I guess my overall criticism of your initial post is that it assumes that the movie studios were all set to go HD-DVD until Sony came in with bags of cash. Such a position is completely presumptive and counter-intuitive given the sales data.

Pointing out sales data as an indicator for either format, especially before January of '08, is basically worthless. Blu-Ray had sold slightly more, depending on how you looked at it, but the sales were basically negligible, as far as useful statistics go.

There were two posters in there, Dave and Amir, who had the inside information. Amir I believe worked very closely with insiders in the HD-DVD alliance, not sure what Dave's story was, but his information had been corroborated as well.

It just came down to money and DRM. Sony at the last second paid Fox a huge sum of money to go Blu-Ray exclusive, and that made Warner gun-shy of going HD-DVD, and then Sony simply paid them as well. The rest had all moved over because they were paid, and the additional layer of DRM that Blu-Ray has was just extra icing on the cake.

The whole point of this is that this "format war" was not decided by consumers, it was decided by Sony and the movie industry, neither of which have a track record of ever giving a **** about what's best for the consumer or the industry as a whole. I have no animosity due to the fact that I chose HD-DVD; I never would have bought, and never will buy a Blu-Ray player. What burns me up is that the consumer is supposed to dictate who succeeds in the marketplace, and Sony simply circumvented that problem by buying out the rest of the industry, while Toshiba was busy trying to win the consumer over by offering lower prices.

That's not how a free-market economy is supposed to work, and yet, that's what happened. Sony had a product that, by all accounts, should be less attractive to the consumer (due to higher prices and more restrictive DRM), so to avoid having to "sell" those features, they simply bought out the content providers, effectively saying to the consumer, "Don't like what we did? **** you, deal with it."

[Green Forever]

Originally Posted by hexydes

I'll be honest, at that point I did not anticipate Sony spending a billion dollars to buy the rest of the studios. I guess if they see that to be a good business decision, then good for them.

Can some of our legal types on the RCMB explain to me why this "investment" on the part of Sony isn't a combination in restraint of trade? Seems like they're setting themselves up for an anti-trust action.

[PortlandSpartan]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

I guess my overall criticism of your initial post is that it assumes that the movie studios were all set to go HD-DVD until Sony came in with bags of cash. Such a position is completely presumptive and counter-intuitive given the sales data.

Your logic is flawed - you use "facts" like sales figures against the word of Dave and Amir. I'm sorry, but I'm listening to Dave and Amir.

Those same sales facts also do not point to the consumer choosing one over the other. Stupid consumers getting duped once again.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by Green Forever

Can some of our legal types on the RCMB explain to me why this "investment" on the part of Sony isn't a combination in restraint of trade? Seems like they're setting themselves up for an anti-trust action.

They likely will at some point, though I'm sure they will just use the defense that Toshiba engaged in the same activity (which they did, and which is why the lawsuit will likely get dropped).

[ShaolinSpartan]

Originally Posted by hexydes

Pointing out sales data as an indicator for either format, especially before January of '08, is basically worthless. Blu-Ray had sold slightly more, depending on how you looked at it, but the sales were basically negligible, as far as useful statistics go.

There were two posters in there, Dave and Amir, who had the inside information. Amir I believe worked very closely with insiders in the HD-DVD alliance, not sure what Dave's story was, but his information had been corroborated as well.

It just came down to money and DRM. Sony at the last second paid Fox a huge sum of money to go Blu-Ray exclusive, and that made Warner gun-shy of going HD-DVD, and then Sony simply paid them as well. The rest had all moved over because they were paid, and the additional layer of DRM that Blu-Ray has was just extra icing on the cake.

The whole point of this is that this "format war" was not decided by consumers, it was decided by Sony and the movie industry, neither of which have a track record of ever giving a **** about what's best for the consumer or the industry as a whole. I have no animosity due to the fact that I chose HD-DVD; I never would have bought, and never will buy a Blu-Ray player. What burns me up is that the consumer is supposed to dictate who succeeds in the marketplace, and Sony simply circumvented that problem by buying out the rest of the industry, while Toshiba was busy trying to win the consumer over by offering lower prices.

That's not how a free-market economy is supposed to work, and yet, that's what happened. Sony had a product that, by all accounts, should be less attractive to the consumer (due to higher prices and more restrictive DRM), so to avoid having to "sell" those features, they simply bought out the content providers, effectively saying to the consumer, "Don't like what we did? **** you, deal with it."

Why?

[PortlandSpartan]

Originally Posted by ShaolinSpartan

Why?

Oh jeez. Here comes the

[Cal]

Originally Posted by LoneWolfSparty®

Final sign HD-DVD lost:

Toshiba HD-A3 HD-DVD Player - HDMI, 720p1080i, Upconversion, Ethernet (With 2 Free Movies In The Box And 5 Free Movies By Mail) at TigerDirect.com

TOshiba player for $89.99.

Wow, that's a deal. Man I wish HD-DVD had won out...

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by Cal

Wow, that's a deal. Man I wish HD-DVD had won out...

So buy one. It plays HD movies just as well as Blu-Ray (if not better), there are 500+ titles available, and the prices are dropping like flies. For $300, you can have yourself one hell of a HD movie collection.

Just an FYI, today (Thursday, 2/28) is the last day that you can get five free movies after mail-in-rebate with your player (on top of Bourne Identity and 300, for a total of seven movies). For those keeping track, at around $100, that makes the price of the movies around $14 each, with a free HD player thrown in. If you have a HTPC or XBox 360, get the HD-DVD add-on for $50, that puts you at around $8 per movie (you only get six movies with the drive, as opposed to the standalone player), with a free HD-DVD drive (works with Windows Vista out of the box).

[ylspartanfan]

Originally Posted by hexydes

Not really. On a fast cable connection, you can download a full 6GB movie in about four hours. That's not that long. For those of you lucky enough to have fiber (FiOS or U-Verse, etc), you can probably get the full movie in under two hours.

You and about 95% of the rest of the people that watch DVDs. The whole reason why I don't think HD optical would ever catch on, because the quality of DVDs is "good enough"; the next generation will be won mostly by the convenience and price factors.

Exactly. This is what I'm saying. And it's not only Netflix, but at least ten other major companies that are all looking at their own options for this technology. It's obvious that downloads are the future; the question is whether they are also the present, or if there is time for one more physical distribution format before downloads take off. I personally think we're close enough to HD downloads that they will make it, but I guess we'll see.

Sounds good but the direct to download movie biz is going to still be several years off. Download a 6gb movie in four hours? Sure if you've got a 6mb/s cable connection (probably less than 5% of the USA) even less in Australia and comparable numbers in Europe. However, that 6gb movie file is your DVD variety movie and not a 1080p DTS MA edition that will be more to the tune of at least 15 - 20 gb. Then if you're not downloading at optimum speeds you're looking at over 24 hours to get your movie. Now your, "hey honey let's watch a movie tonight" just turned into (instead of a trip to the rental place or just quickly popping in the disc) a "lets watch a movie tomorrow" or if you don't have that 6 mb/s cable connections (like most of the world) "let's watch a movie in 2 - 4 days.

Then factor in the push and marketing that we've seen for HD movies (just check out your local Best Buy with several DVD vs. Blu-Ray displays set up), people when they see the HD on a big screen and then put that big screen are going to want the best picture they can get. There's also the familiarity of putting a disc or tape in the player and pressing play. Sure high school and college kids today are pretty familiar with torrent downloads of movies, but the people with money (their parents) are comfortable with the movie disc/player setup.

Will we see mainstream digital downloads? Of course. Is there server capacity, bandwidth or consumer demand in place yet for downloads to be viable? Not yet. In 5 - 10 years when all of those bit torrenting high school and college kids are getting jobs and making money and a 6 mb/s connection is the standard with a 100 mb/s connection is the premium with a 5 - 10 tb hard drive a standard we'll see downloads become the standard. Til then, we've got DVD and the Blu.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by ylspartanfan

Sounds good but the direct to download movie biz is going to still be several years off. Download a 6gb movie in four hours? Sure if you've got a 6mb/s cable connection (probably less than 5% of the USA) even less in Australia and comparable numbers in Europe.

6Mbps would be 750KB per second. At that rate, you could have the movie done in a little over two hours. I was referring to something more in the range of 3Mbps, which just about everyone on a cable connection should have. At that rate, a 6GB movie would be finished in slightly over five hours (assuming optimum speeds).

However, that 6gb movie file is your DVD variety movie and not a 1080p DTS MA edition that will be more to the tune of at least 15 - 20 gb.

You're assuming that the movies have to be encoded using the exact same type and quality of compression as an HD disc, or even the same resolution. That's the beauty of a downloadable movie paradigm, you aren't locked into one or two formats; as long as the playback software understands what it is reading in, you're fine.

You could easily have a scale for each movie that looks like:

Pick the version you wish to download:

[X] Transformers (Portable format) - $2.99
[ ] Transformers (SD rental) - $0.99
[ ] Transformers (SD purchase) - $2.99
[ ] Transformers (720p HD rental) - $3.99
[ ] Transformers (720p HD purchase) - $5.99
[ ] Transformers (1080p HD rental) - $4.99
[ ] Transformers (1080p HD purchase) - $7.99
[ ] Transformers (package, portable and 1080p HD purchase) - $9.99

Then you just have a section in the software where you can do a speed test to give you an idea of what time frame you're looking at for each version of a movie. Then you can decide what you want to do from there.

Additionally, if you're just talking about the movie, not extras, that drops the size down considerably. Most of the movies on an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray don't take up anywhere close to all of the space, usually only using between 6 and 15GB of space. If you compress that a little tighter, you can easily squeeze a 1080p movie into 10GB or less. Still big, indeed, but that's why you have different versions of the movie available.

Then if you're not downloading at optimum speeds you're looking at over 24 hours to get your movie. Now your, "hey honey let's watch a movie tonight" just turned into (instead of a trip to the rental place or just quickly popping in the disc) a "lets watch a movie tomorrow" or if you don't have that 6 mb/s cable connections (like most of the world) "let's watch a movie in 2 - 4 days.

Even at 3Mbps, and assuming a 10GB movie file, that's only 7.5 hours. But then, they would have done the speed test and seen that either they could pick the 720p version (only taking 3 hours), or made the decision that "Eh, we can go out for the day, and then come home and watch a movie."

Then factor in the push and marketing that we've seen for HD movies (just check out your local Best Buy with several DVD vs. Blu-Ray displays set up), people when they see the HD on a big screen and then put that big screen are going to want the best picture they can get.

Eh, I dunno about that. I notice the difference, but being completely honest, the majority of the population doesn't. These are the people that are watching analog cable on a 1080p television and going "OMG LOOK AT THE PICTURE IT'S SO AMAZING!!" And that's a 480i video stream. Give them a 720p stream, and most are floored. Unless they have a huge (50"+) television that supports 1080p, and a discerning eye, they likely won't even notice a difference between 720p and 1080p anyway.

There's also the familiarity of putting a disc or tape in the player and pressing play. Sure high school and college kids today are pretty familiar with torrent downloads of movies, but the people with money (their parents) are comfortable with the movie disc/player setup.

Granted it is hard sometimes to break the older crowd of a paradigm they have lived with for 20-30 years, but I think if you do a system right (see Apple), it actually becomes pretty easy to point-and-click your way to what you want to watch.

Will we see mainstream digital downloads? Of course. Is there server capacity, bandwidth or consumer demand in place yet for downloads to be viable? Not yet. In 5 - 10 years when all of those bit torrenting high school and college kids are getting jobs and making money and a 6 mb/s connection is the standard with a 100 mb/s connection is the premium with a 5 - 10 tb hard drive a standard we'll see downloads become the standard. Til then, we've got DVD and the Blu.

Ok, but two points here:

1. How long did it take DVD to supplant VHS as the dominant distribution medium for consumer video content? DVD first appeared for consumers around 1996. It took 4-5 years (1999/2000) before they reached a point where they started to out-pace VHS, and another 4-5 (around 2005) to basically kill off the format. That's ten years, give or take. But that leads into the second point...

2. The quality and convenience of DVD vs. VHS is astronomical when compared to Blu-Ray vs. DVD. With DVD vs. VHS, you had a MUCH nicer picture, that never faded over time, lots of extras instead of just the movie, and the ability to skip around instantly (including never having to "Be Kind and Rewind" again).

With Blu-Ray vs. DVD, what do you have? A better picture, granted, but the majority of consumers have shown that even if they have a TV capable of handling that (which 70% don't), they simply don't notice a difference between 480i and 1080p. Add to that the fact that you can buy an upscaling DVD player for under $40 to bring your entire DVD to "near HD quality" (interpret that how you will), and it makes a pretty weak case for Blu-Ray to take over in the market (at least in comparison to how it worked for DVD).

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I think the next generation will be decided by convenience factors, not quality. The quality on digital HD downloads is "good enough". The only thing slowing it is download speeds (which is rapidly becoming a non-issue), and adoption by the industry. Looking at how many options are already available for this (from companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, others), and what is on the horizon (Netflix + LG, Vudu, etc), it's pretty clear where the industry (minus Sony) wants to move this.

The only remaining question is, does physical format have one round left, or is it already over? I personally feel that digital downloads are there, and in a year or two or three you'll see the pieces fall into place, well-before Blu-Ray ever has a chance to supplant DVD in the market. I honestly don't think HD-DVD or Blu-Ray ever stood a chance.

But as always, time will tell...

[Sparty10]

Anyone find any bargains on HD DVDs yet? I'm looking to build the collection for cheap

[Floyd Robertson]

Dreamworks "stuck" with Toshiba, HD DVD

27 February 2008 18:25 by Andre "DVDBack23" Yoskowitz | 70 comments
Dreamworks Studios has announced that they are still "locked" into an exclusivity deal with Toshiba to distribute their movies on HD DVD only and would continue to do so until Toshiba tells them differently.

"We have a partnership with Toshiba and have an obligation to see this through," DreamWorks Chief Executive Jeffrey Katzenberg said.

"As you know, we have been well-compensated for our support. It really is in their court at this point to really declare what the next step will be. We're poised either way to jump into the marketplace when the conditions are right to do so," he added.

Katzenberg's comments seem to imply that all the past rumors were indeed correct and Dreamworks and Paramount were paid over $150 million USD to go HD DVD-exclusive for 18 months. It seems however that Paramount had a different clause in there contract because they recently dropped HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray.

[hexydes]

Originally Posted by Sparty10

Anyone find any bargains on HD DVDs yet? I'm looking to build the collection for cheap

Not anything spectacular yet. The retailers all know that people with HD-DVD players are just chomping at the bit to get deals, so they're lowering the prices very slowly. First is going to be the players (already happened), then the junk DVDs that they have a million of that nobody wants, and finally, the real movies. Then, you'll have to watch the prices and sort of choose a point where you want to jump in and buy, before they sell out of their inventory.

[VinAZ]

Originally Posted by SparTodd

Dreamworks "stuck" with Toshiba, HD DVD

27 February 2008 18:25 by Andre "DVDBack23" Yoskowitz | 70 comments
Dreamworks Studios has announced that they are still "locked" into an exclusivity deal with Toshiba to distribute their movies on HD DVD only and would continue to do so until Toshiba tells them differently.

"We have a partnership with Toshiba and have an obligation to see this through," DreamWorks Chief Executive Jeffrey Katzenberg said.

"As you know, we have been well-compensated for our support. It really is in their court at this point to really declare what the next step will be. We're poised either way to jump into the marketplace when the conditions are right to do so," he added.

Katzenberg's comments seem to imply that all the past rumors were indeed correct and Dreamworks and Paramount were paid over $150 million USD to go HD DVD-exclusive for 18 months. It seems however that Paramount had a different clause in there contract because they recently dropped HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray.

I thought the Sony/Blu-ray group were the only ones paying off the studios...

[GRR Spartan]

The format is dead but you agreed to to give us the cash.

Katzenberg's legal team has done a good job. I'm guessing there is no mention of Toshiba getting out of their contractual obligation even if they quit developing the format.

Shame on Toshiba's lawyers for approving an agreement with such a large hole to suck in their client's cash.

[Trevor Barnes]

Shhh! Circuit City Trading HD DVD Players for Blu-ray

Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 07:30 PM ET
Tags: Circuit City, High-Def Retailing, Industry Trends (all tags) Circuit City is allowing customers to trade in their HD DVD players and apply the original sales price toward the purchase of new Blu-ray players.
As first reported by Gizmodo earlier today (and confirmed at a Washington-area Circuit City this afternoon by High-Def Digest), the unpublicized offer is giving in-the-know customers a second chance at making the jump to high-def.
The offer only applies to players sold in the last 90 days, but that should give those who received HD DVD players for the holidays enough time to trade in their gifts for the winning next generation format. You must return the player in the original box with all of its accessories in order to qualify. Considering the price differences between the two player formats, there will likely be additional costs in making the exchange.
Note that this offer only applies to players and not to HD DVD discs.
(Thanks to Solstice X for the tip!)
See what people are saying about this story in our forums area, or check out other recent discussions.

Related links:

Circuit City Trading In HD DVD for Blu-Ray Players, Says Employee [Gizmodo]

[hexydes]

No thanks. I have so many HD-DVDs now. I've probably spent...I dunno $250 so far, and I have 25 movies, an HD-DVD drive, and an HD-DVD player. I'm buying movies like crazy. Next on the list is Planet Earth for $20.

[ShaolinSpartan]

Originally Posted by hexydes

No thanks. I have so many HD-DVDs now. I've probably spent...I dunno $250 so far, and I have 25 movies, an HD-DVD drive, and an HD-DVD player. I'm buying movies like crazy. Next on the list is Planet Earth for $20.

What is with your love affair with HD-DVD? When new HD-DVD's stop coming out, what are you going to do?