tOfficial MSU @ Cal predictions thread

[droski]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

@ Wisconsin
Michigan
@ Ohio State
Penn State

Where are you guys getting this stuff?

Wake up, Ohio state is the only one of those teams that would have finished anywhere near the top half of the pac-10.

[droski]

Originally Posted by AASpartan

But I'm sure that you got better while we got worse.

That is my guess too. Thanks!

[Babies Need Tickets]

Originally Posted by droski

Wake up, Ohio state is the only one of those teams that would have finished anywhere near the top half of the pac-10.

You don't think the others would have made it past powerhouses UCLA and Arizona?

[lindat]

Originally Posted by droski

Wake up, Ohio state is the only one of those teams that would have finished anywhere near the top half of the pac-10.

Don't confuse them.

[AASpartan]

Originally Posted by lindat

Don't confuse them.

I'm just going to assume that you don't watch football if you agree with his completely stupid comment.

[JEK]

Originally Posted by droski

Wake up, Ohio state is the only one of those teams that would have finished anywhere near the top half of the pac-10.

You know, when the crux of your argument is based on things that have never taken place, nor will ever take place, your argument sucks to begin with.

[Babies Need Tickets]

Originally Posted by JEK

You know, when the crux of your argument is based on things that have never taken place, nor will ever take place, your argument sucks to begin with.

Here's something that took place:

ESPN - Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. UCLA Bruins Box Score, October 6 2007 - NCAA College Football

The next game, UCLA beat Cal.

[OskiGoDumb]

(not much) here's the opening Sagarin rankings:

USATODAY.com


Cal #14
MSU #51

[Big Dirty]

Cal - 34
MSU - 21

[RPMadMSU]

This is almost a mini invasion.

[JEK]

Well, props to CAL fans for representing here and showing some passion. I thought football was just a serviceable diversion for Cali folks.

[chitownsparty86]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

Here's something that took place:

ESPN - Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. UCLA Bruins Box Score, October 6 2007 - NCAA College Football

The next game, UCLA beat Cal.

I was just about to post this. Your conferemce gave ND two of their three wins . ND didn't come with two tds of any BT team they played

[newduke]

MSU 31, Cal 27

[LabattGreen]

MSU-35
CAL-17

oh yeah!!!

[Spartan4ever]

In my opinion this is a great way to start the season by facing a solid opponent. No easing into the schedule so the players will have to come out totally focused right from the start. This is a game that will not permit either team to take plays off so the players will have to give 100% effort on every snap. This game will have a BCS bowl type importance because of it being one of the featured late starting contests with national exposure. Both teams have different motives for playing well. Cal wants to prove that last years poor showing was an anomoly and not an indication that the program has slipped. MSU wants to establish that they are a team on the rise and not the rollercoaster Spartans of the past forty years.

This game is important to both Cal and MSU in that it will give an almost immediate guage to areas of weakness and strength. Each unit matchup will be critical in determining the eventual winner. Cal has just as many question marks as MSU. Their OL appears to be a strength, but there is uncertainty surrounding both their running and passing game as they have many new starters at RB and WR. Cal's starting QB is also hoping to display better maturity and decision making than what he exhibited at times last year.

Defensively Cal is implementing a new 3-4 scheme to take advantage of their strength at linebacker. This is an alignment that could really cause MSU some trouble if the proper blocking assignments aren't called. Nitchman is going to have his work cut out for him, as I expect Cal to employ an extensive assortment of blitz packages. Cal like MSU appears to have a talented secondary that mixes in a couple of veterans with two underclassmen who got their feet wet last season. The three-man front that MSU will face is probably the weakest unit of the three, but they are by no means a liability.

MSU is hoping that their own inexperienced receiving corps will step up and force the Cal defense from crowding the LOS. This is Dell's and Cunningham's time to shine and make the difficult catches that Thomas made look routine last season. Gantt will also be a key factor. He doesn't necessarily have to be spectacular, but when called upon he is going to provide a block to help Ringer to gain positive yards or make a catch that will keep MSU in short down and distance situations.

The key matchup for MSU, and one that I believe needs to end in a stalemate at the least is the front four. They will need to effectively get a push up field to disrupt Cal's running game, and pressure Riley when he goes back to pass. If the DL struggles I fear MSU's linebackers will get tangled up with Cal's OL, rendering them useless.

I believe MSU is capable of winning this game if they have continued to progress on their last years performances. Cal is just as capable and that is why this game will be a very good measuring stick for both squads. If neither team gains a momentum advantage and proceeds to run away with the game, this should be a closely contested affair decided by a touchdown or less.

[PSU98]

Need to Take the green kool-aid from you guys. Your program is not as good as northwestern. You have a overrated coach that comes from cheaters. He is ranked the 40th best coach. Maybe 140. You will fall hard from the Kool-aid stand.
m$u and football I will give you guys credit that you fell into Izzo. You will always be good in B-Ball as long as he is around. Maybe 5 more years?

[GoStateNate]

Originally Posted by PSU98

Need to Take the green kool-aid from you guys. Your program is not as good as northwestern. You have a overrated coach that comes from cheaters. He is ranked the 40th best coach. Maybe 140. You will fall hard from the Kool-aid stand.
m$u and football I will give you guys credit that you fell into Izzo. You will always be good in B-Ball as long as he is around. Maybe 5 more years?

this coming from a guy that's a PSU fan. Outside the Lines anyone? I'm wondering how senility is an asset when it comes to coaching.

[Babies Need Tickets]

Originally Posted by PSU98

Need to Take the green kool-aid from you guys. Your program is not as good as northwestern. You have a overrated coach that comes from cheaters. He is ranked the 40th best coach. Maybe 140. You will fall hard from the Kool-aid stand.
m$u and football I will give you guys credit that you fell into Izzo. You will always be good in B-Ball as long as he is around. Maybe 5 more years?

Probably explains why you guys beat us last year.

[mvargus]

Originally Posted by SpartanRocky

MSU 31

Cal 28


MSU will be down 21-14 at the half.

Ringer: 150 yards, but he gets 80 on one long run at the start of the 2nd half to get the team going. Otherwise he's held pretty much in check.

Hoyer: 250 yards, 3 TDs, including the game winner, which comes with less than 2 min. to go in the game.

Dell: 113 yards, 8 receptions, TD

Gantt: 4 catches, 55 yards, TD

Keshawn Martin, 4 catches, 76 yards, including a bubble screen that goes for 40.

Fred Smith: 2 catches, 15 yards, tRCMB immediately calls him a bust.

Anderson: 2 sacks and an F-YOU to Cal Starting LT Mike Tepper

Long: Sack, 3 TFL, 1 PBU

Otis Wiley and Ross weaver each get an INT, both in the 2nd half to spark scoring drives, including a Weaver Int in the endzone to stop Cal's drive that was going to put us away (5 min. left in the 4th, cal's up 28-24).

Cal's RB will get 100 or so yards, including a long, 57 yard TD run in the first quarter, until our D settles in and contains him for the rest of the game.

Cal's QB is harassed all day by a strong pass rush and constantly throws under pressure. Throws 2 Tds, but also 2 Ints. QBs are switched in the 2nd half, to no avail.

Hoyer gets sacked 3 times, but doesn't throw an INt. He does have a fumble lost however.

The idea that Cal struggles to contain your pass rush is the one area I have to disagree with you. Cal has been in the top #5 for fewest sacks allowed the last two seasons, and that includes games against Oregon state (which for the past 2 seasons was one of the top teams in the nation for recording sacks) and USC (and they have had a great pass rush every year that Carroll has coached there.)

At best I'd expect no more than 2 sacks unless Cal gets behind big early due to turnovers. If its a close game or Cal has a lead, Tedford will switch to a short pass and run game to tire your defense and reduce the chance of turnovers. Its a low risk offense, but has proven extremely effective.

[mvargus]

Originally Posted by RPMadMSU

MSU 27 - Cal 17.

Cal has trouble adjusting to their new D verse a live opponent and MSU's run game wears em down early and keeps em on the field. Defensively, MSU's speed rush rattles Cal's patchwork, and inexperienced line, as well as the young Riley early, and Cal makes the switch to Longshore in the 2nd half, but they don't have enough possessions to come back.
.

An interesting prediction, but I'm not sure where some of this comes from.

I posted on the Cal board that last season by the end of the ASU game Cal's defense was a wierd 3-3 in a way. Cal kept DT Matt Malele on the field, but he had a knee injury that limited his mobilty severely. With starters DE Rulon Davis out, and DT Mika Kane also ineffective due to injury, the Cal linebackers got a lot of experience fighting off blocks. I don't see them having much of an adjustment, especially as they have been against the Cal O-line in practice, so they know what to expect. Also Cal's LB corp goes 10 deep, and will be hard to wear down.

On the O-line for Cal, they have 2 3 year starters (C Alex Mack, RG Noris Malele) and LT Chet Teofilo has considerable game experience from last season. RT Schwartz is a redshirt freshman, but was part of what most pundits considered one of the best linemen classes of the year when he signed in 2006, and LG Chris Guarnero was good enough that during the 2007 spring practices, they tried C Alex Mack at tackle with the idea that Guarnero would take over at center. They decided against that, but Mark Boskovich received playing time at guard last season and lost out in training camp to Guarnero, so I doubt there is much of a drop off, if any. They key is going to be Mack though. He is the veteran and makes all of the line calls, telling the O-line how they will block each play. If he is healthy all season, the Cal O-line will be dominant, even if some of the players are a bit inexperienced.

[mvargus]

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

Trying to look at this one objectively, and will break it down by position. Interestingly enough, my initial thought on this game was that Cal would win. After looking more closely at the two teams, however, I pick MSU.

I hope you don't mind that I'm going to give a Cal fans response to this.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

I'm obviously more informed about MSU than about Cal, and am going off of projected depth charts and stats for many positions, so who knows. Further, I just have no idea at some key positions.

I'm the reverse and probably a lot more informed about Cal, but that should just make the analysis comparison interesting.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

Based on the analysis below, I think MSU has the better team overall. Cal has playmakers, though, playing at home in a national night game with high expectations.

Nevertheless, we do have quite a bit of experience and, hopefully, composure at the key positions. I also think that throughout the game, we will wear them down, on both offense and defense. We should be able to control the clock on offense and rest our D. Greg Jones will be the difference maker on D as he will line up all over the field and create mismatches.

The only area where Cal is going to have an expereience question is at WR. QB Riley may only have 7 quarters under his belt, but 4 of those were against OSU which had one of the best defenses in the nation last season. He proved quite capable of handling the pressure, and if it had not been for his one mistake with twelve second to go, we probably would be talking about how great a QB he is, rather than questioning his ability. He then came into the AFA bowl game down 21-0 and turned the game around with pinpoint passing and great pocket presense. I do agree that clock control for either team will make a difference.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

In the end, two things help us. First, we should be able to move and tire their defensive line. Second, we have more experience, on balance, at the skill positions. I think we control the clock and they make more mistakes, which makes the difference in a game between two pretty evenly matched teams.

Cal is going to be able to go 10-12 deep on the D-line this season, although NT Kane is starting the season with a bad knee. And they look to be 8-10 deep at LB as well. I don't think tiring out the defense is going to be easy for any team until/unless Cal has injury problems like they did last season.
Cal does have huge question at WR when it comes to game experience, but I expect Tedford to make adjustments to his playbook early to bring the team along. The new receivers are all big, and Cal is probably going to go to a possession short passing offense for a while until they get the receivers some game expereience. All the receivers are reported to love blocking downfield, so I expect more screens and reverses to take advantage of that added facet to the offense, since last years WR corp was small and did not block well downfield.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

QB: Slight edge to MSU. Hoyer had a solid year and is the second-year starter in a known system. Cal starts a largely unknown quantity in Kevin Riley, though he did perform relatively well in action last year in limited action. I think Hoyer's experience is the key here, and really believe he will have learned from many of the mistakes he made last year.

I agree that Hoyer's experience makes him the better choice for the opening game. Riley is not an unknown quantity though, is probably the more talented of the two, and does have some game experience. I think it comes down to if Hoyer's additional game experience will trump Riley's talent. After seeing Riley lead the comeback in the AFA bowl, I'm not sure. I'll leave this as slight edge to MSU though.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

RB: Slight edge to MSU. Cal must replace a very productive back in Justin Forsett, while MSU has a senior stud in Ringer, though he is coming back from injury. Cal's Jahvid Best was a prized recruit and looked good in some action last year, but hasn't yet shown that he can carry the load throughout the game while taking the pounding we will put on him. Depth at RB seems to be a question mark for both teams.

Forsett is a very good RB, but he was small and not as fast as Best. In truth Best should have been a 5-star recruit, but the way the services put together their ratings they left him at 4-star. I agree that the question will be durability, although Cal does have 2 reserves who were highly recruited and have shined in practice. Still I have to give the nod to your senior Ringer based on him having more experience than the combined Cal RB corp.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

FB: No idea, so I'll say push.

Cal has a very good FB in Will Tua'o'ufo. He'll be in his third season of blocking and making the occasional catch out of the backfield. His injury mid-season definitely hurt Cal in short yardage, so having him might have an impact. I've heard little about the MSU fullbacks, so I don't want to speculate. I'll agree with the push.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

OL vs. DL, rushing: Edge to MSU. O-lines: Cal 4 SR, 1 SO at LG. MSU 2 SR, 2 JR, 1 FR at LG. Both teams breaking in two new starters. Cal front line on defense supposedly "soft," though quick. MSU front 4 anchored by Justin Kershaw, with senior Brandon Long and transfer Trevor Anderson. I think it's a push on OL, with our DL looking better. Teams ran on largely this same DL last year. A lot. We will too.

Your OL v our DL probably is an advantage for you, although Cal's D-line was good early in the season before the injury bug started to take its toll. Cal finished the season with only 3 healthy D-linemen, and the wear showed. I think this is a huge part of the switch to the 3-4 as Cal is much deeper at LB.
Our OL v any DL has usually been a victory for our OL going back to 2002. Cal has had at least one RB run for 1000 yards every year that Tedford has been the head coach and its always started up front by a very well coached OL. I expect Cal to find the weak point in your DL and push them back, at best this is a push, as I expect both D-lines to struggle.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

OL vs. DL, passing: Slight edge to Cal. Quickness and big Mike Tepper at the blindside Tackle position. Our OL is capable, but Cal's front line on D may be too quick.

Tepper is not all that fast, and struggled to handle speed rushers last season, but he's also out due to injury. Cal is very good at pass blocking and has been in the top 5 in the nation for fewest sacks allowed 2 years in a row. I don't expect that much of a drop there.
Cal's pass rush was terrible last season, but again, injuries were a huge problem. They have added a couple of redshirt freshmen who have stood out in practice and the 3-4 allows Cal to take advantage of the speed of several outside linebackers. However, until they hit the field against a real opponent there is a lot of mystery here, so I'll stick with it only being a slight edge to Cal.

Originally Posted by Babies Need Tickets

WR: Edge to MSU. We bring back two experienced starters, they are breaking in a new corps. Loss of Devin Thomas obviously hurts, but Dell showed promise last year and Hoyer/Curry really seem to have developed a connection.

Experience for MSU, lots of talent and size for Cal. I haven't read many practice reports for MSU, but Cal has had a very spirited competition for playing time and 7 different WR made waves in practice at different times. If this was midseason we would have a better idea of how Cal's WRs will be, as it is, I'll leave it as edge to MSU, but reduce it to slight. I think the Cal's WRs will prove to be much better than their experience level would suggest.

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