I'm going to sift through CFB data warehouse to determine SOS games

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:06 PM

Five categories:

SOS collapse - MSU lost the game due to some inexplicable events, a stunning collapse, or the like

anti-SOS collapse - the opponent lost the game due to some inexplicable events, a stunning collapse, or the like

SOS upset - MSU gets beaten by an inferior team

anti-SOS upset - the opponent gets beaten by an inferior MSU team

expected - everything else

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:08 PM

2009
Montana St: expected
CMU: SOS collapse, SOS upset
ND: SOS collapse/expected
Wisconsin: expected
UM: expected
Illinois: expected
Northwestern: expected
Iowa: SOS collapse/expected
Minnesota: SOS upset/expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:09 PM

2008
Cal: expected
Eastern: expected
Florida Atlantic: expected
ND: expected
Indiana: expected
Iowa: expected/anti-SOS upset
Northwestern: expected
Ohio State: expected
Michigan: expected
Wisconsin: anti-SOS collapse
Purdue: expected
Penn State: expected
Georgia: expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:12 PM

2007
UAB: expected
Bowling Green: expected
Pitt: expected
ND: expected
Wisconsin: expected
Northwestern: SOS upset
Indiana: expected
Ohio State: expected
Iowa: SOS collapse (we led 17-3 at halftime IIRC)
Michigan: SOS collapse
Purdue: expected
Penn State: anti-SOS collapse
BC: expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:15 PM

2006
Idaho: expected
Eastern: expected
Pitt: expected
ND: SOS collapse
Illinois: SOS upset
Michigan: expected
Ohio State: expected
Northwestern: anti-SOS collapse
Indiana: SOS upset/expected
Purdue: expected
Minnesota: expected
Penn State: expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:17 PM

2005
Kent State: expected
Hawaii: expected
ND: expected/anti-SOS upset
Illinois: expected
Michigan: SOS upset/expected
Ohio State: SOS collapse
Northwestern: SOS upset/expected
Indiana: expected
Purdue: expected
Minnesota: expected
Penn State: expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:19 PM

2004
Rutgers: SOS upset
CMU: expected
ND: expected
Indiana: expected
Iowa: expected
Illinois: expected
Minnesota: expected
Michigan: SOS collapse
Ohio State: expected/SOS upset/SOS collapse
Wisconsin: anti-SOS upset
Penn State: SOS upset
Hawaii: refs cheated

SpartanGreen78 · 11-04-2009, 02:28 PM

That's one way to do it...but I think a more telling way to determine this is to choose the following criteria:

1) Which team is favored in each matchup
2) Which team won?
3) If MSU lost, did they lead by more than 10 points at any point in the game.

That would produce the same conclusions with better datapoints.

1) If MSU was favored, and won, it's NOT SOS
2) If MSU was favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
3) If MSU was favored, and lost, and did not blow a lead, it's SOS
4) If MSU was not favored and won, it's SOS
5) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
6) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and did not blow a lead, it's NOT SOS

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpartanGreen78

That's one way to do it...but I think a more telling way to determine this is to choose the following criteria:

1) Which team is favored in each matchup
2) Which team won?
3) If MSU lost, did they lead by more than 10 points at any point in the game.

That would produce the same conclusions with better datapoints.

1) If MSU was favored, and won, it's NOT SOS
2) If MSU was favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
3) If MSU was favored, and lost, and did not blow a lead, it's SOS
4) If MSU was not favored and won, it's SOS
5) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
6) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and did not blow a lead, it's NOT SOS

That also works; I think basically any game not listed as "expected" is some sort of SOS game, although I am included games where MSU was favored and the other team blew a lead also as SOS (but in a good way.)

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:48 PM

Anyway, continuing:

2003
WMU: expected
Rutgers: expected
La Tech: SOS collapse/SOS upset
ND: expected
Iowa: expected
Indiana: expected
Illinois: expected
Minnesota: expected
Michigan: expected (some would argue SOS upset, but Michigan was clearly the better team that year)
Ohio State: expected
Wisconsin: expected/SOS upset by margin of loss
Penn State: expected
Nebraska: expected

fishrose · 11-04-2009, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpartanGreen78

That's one way to do it...but I think a more telling way to determine this is to choose the following criteria:

1) Which team is favored in each matchup
2) Which team won?
3) If MSU lost, did they lead by more than 10 points at any point in the game.

That would produce the same conclusions with better datapoints.

1) If MSU was favored, and won, it's NOT SOS
2) If MSU was favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
3) If MSU was favored, and lost, and never held a lead, it's SOS
4) If MSU was not favored and won but went on to lose at least one game via conditions 1-3, 5, or 6, it's SOS
5) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and blew a lead, it's SOS
6) If MSU was not favored, and lost, and did not blow a lead or never held a lead, it's NOT SOS

I propose the addendums in bold.

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:50 PM

2002
Eastern: expected
Rice: expected
Cal: expected/SOS upset by complete display of ineptitude
ND: expected/SOS collapse
Northwestern: expected
Iowa: expected
Minnesota: expected
Wisconsin: expected
Michigan: expected
Indiana: expected
Purdue: expected
Penn State: expected

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:54 PM

2001
CMU: expected
ND: expected
Northwestern: SOS collapse
Iowa: expected
Minnesota: expected?
Wisconsin: expected
Michigan: anti-SOS collapse/anti-SOS upset
Indiana: SOS upset
Purdue: expected
Penn State: SOS collapse/SOS upset
Missouri: expected
Fresno State: anti-SOS upset

Mutated Sea Bass · 11-04-2009, 02:56 PM

2000
Marshall: expected
Missouri: expected
ND: anti-SOS collapse
Northwestern: SOS upset/expected in retrospect
Iowa: SOS upset
Wisconsin: expected/SOS collapse
Michigan: expected
Illinois: expected
Ohio State: expected
Purdue: anti-SOS upset
Penn State: expected/SOS upset by margin of loss

Garrett Rivas' Gut · 11-05-2009, 01:55 PM

Since Dantonio took over, there only have been 2 games where I was truly pissed off to the point where I thought of SOS

2007 Northwestern
2009 Central Michigan

'07 Iowa was bad, but it wasn't a collapse. '07 scUM was awful, but Michigan made a lot of plays at the end and we didn't hand it to them. There weren't any SOS in 2008. Minny, and Wiscy were just bad games where we didn't show up. I would say that CMU was SOS and ND and Iowa were just really tough losses.