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05-17-2008, 09:10 AM
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#1 (permalink)
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How will Barack Obama get to 270?
Salon.com | How will Barack Obama get to 270?
States that strongly favor Obama ("strongly" in the context of close states, that is): Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington. That's 43 electoral votes. Add that to the safe blue 157 votes in 11 states and D.C. and Obama is at 200.
States that slightly favor Obama: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Another 55 votes. He's now at 255
States that strongly favor McCain: Florida, North Carolina. Their 42 electoral votes are probably going to the Republicans.
States that slightly favor McCain: Colorado, 9 votes; Missouri, 11 votes; and Virginia, 13 votes. Obama's chances are better here.
Pure toss-ups: Nevada, 5 votes; New Hampshire, 4 votes; New Mexico, 5 votes; and Ohio, 20 votes.
Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.
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05-17-2008, 11:09 AM
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#2 (permalink)
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I stick to my prediction. McCain will be lucky to win 5 states.
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05-17-2008, 11:25 AM
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#3 (permalink)
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Have to say that VP selection could be a huge factor in this race. Specifically, if one candidate takes on a VP that has a good chance of delivering a state that you list as slightly favoring the other candidate, suddenly the pure toss-ups would all become must gets for the candidate that lost a state that slightly favored him. For instance: if McCain adds tMittster, it's a safe bet that tMittster will spend most, if not all of his campaign hours trying to sway Michigan. If Michigan goes to McCain, suddenly he can lose Ohio and still win the election. This is only one example and it certainly could work for Obama too.
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05-17-2008, 11:48 AM
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#4 (permalink)
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Obama lost by double digits to Hillary in PA, I love how Dems are chalking it up in the win column already.
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05-17-2008, 01:35 PM
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#5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eliot Draisen
Obama lost by double digits to Hillary in PA, I love how Dems are chalking it up in the win column already.
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MN is also considered an in play state. Yet demms have in the strong Obama column. 
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05-17-2008, 01:43 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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NJ, MO, TN, VA and NM are also all favoring McCain.
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05-17-2008, 01:57 PM
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#7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eliot Draisen
Obama lost by double digits to Hillary in PA, I love how Dems are chalking it up in the win column already.
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Check out this March poll. (I know it was a few months ago). While Hillary was the Dem's choice, Obama did better against McCain than Hillary did.
Just another example of how many anomalies there are in this race.
Quote:
11. Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats Only)
Hillary Clinton 56%
Barack Obama 38%
Undecided 6%
12. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what is most important, one who represents change or one who has experience? (Democrats only)
Change 45%
Experience 39%
Undecided 16%
13. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 48%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 10%
14. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 44%
Undecided 9%
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Strategic Vision Political
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05-17-2008, 02:04 PM
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#8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eliot Draisen
Obama lost by double digits to Hillary in PA, I love how Dems are chalking it up in the win column already.
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A) He didn't lose by double digits
B) I guess McCain is arrogant if he believes he will win in any of these states:
Iowa
Wyoming
Michigan
Nevada
Maine
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Montana
North Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
Kansas
Louisiana
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05-17-2008, 02:38 PM
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#9 (permalink)
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McCain's campaign will use everything from the Nixon handbook to get elected and McCain has a leg up on Nixon since he is much more likable.
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05-17-2008, 03:49 PM
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#10 (permalink)
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Anybody want odds on if Obama were to make Hillary his VP how long it would be before he has extra holes in his head???
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05-17-2008, 10:44 PM
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#11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eliot Draisen
Obama lost by double digits to Hillary in PA, I love how Dems are chalking it up in the win column already.
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Don't kid yourself, Obama is still beating McCain by 9 points in Pennsylvania.
RealClearPolitics - Pennsylvania Head-to-Head Polls
Using this website: Electoral College Calculator and Map Generator
I took 2004's election results and made these states independent:
Nevada ( Pollster.com)
New Mexico ( Pollster.com)
Colorado ( Pollster.com)
Iowa ( Pollster.com)
Michigan ( Pollster.com)
Ohio ( Pollster.com)
Virginia ( Pollster.com)
That leaves 231 for the Dems, 231 for the GOP, and 76 swing votes.
I think McCain takes Virginia, Nevada, Ohio
I think Obama takes Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico
Leaving the Dems with 269, and the GOP with 269 
Last edited by #1; 05-17-2008 at 10:58 PM.
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05-17-2008, 10:57 PM
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#12 (permalink)
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Part 2 of the post above:
Imagine if Jim Webb was the VP candidate, he could deliver Virginia, or if Richardson was a choice he could get New Mexico. Hillary might help him in Ohio or Michigan...
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05-17-2008, 11:06 PM
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#13 (permalink)
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Part 3:
Quote:
Under a tie, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives. Each state delegation in the House of Representatives would caucus individually, with each state getting one vote. How does this work?
Arkansas has four members in the House of Representatives: Three are Democrats and one is Republican. They would caucus together and cast their one for Obama (assuming he’s the nominee of course.) So the people of Arkansas could have voted for McCain, but in the House, they might likely vote for Obama. Ironically, John McCain might not win his home state of Arizona in this scenario, because there are 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans in his state’s delegation. A tie yields no vote obviously.
The Democrats have more state delegations than Republicans, and thus a 269-269 tie would elect the Democrat as President. Unless, Republican make some gains in the Congressional elections.
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05-18-2008, 12:32 PM
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#14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #1
Part 2 of the post above:
Imagine if Jim Webb was the VP candidate, he could deliver Virginia, or if Richardson was a choice he could get New Mexico. Hillary might help him in Ohio or Michigan...
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I hope that Obama uses your ideas.....
Jim Webb is ****ing nuts - he's crazier than John McCain and McCain is bat **** crazy.
I'd love to see Richardson on the ticket - a black man and a hispanic on the same ticket? My God they'd be lucky to top 30% of the white vote.
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05-18-2008, 07:28 PM
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#15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #1
Leaving the Dems with 269, and the GOP with 269 |
In the instance of a tie, the President gets to choose anyone he wants to be the newly elected President (doesn't even have to be a candidate).
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05-18-2008, 07:29 PM
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#16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Great Danton
In the instance of a tie, the President gets to choose anyone he wants to be the newly elected President (doesn't even have to be a candidate).
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I hope this is supposed to be a joke...
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05-18-2008, 07:29 PM
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#17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Great Danton
In the instance of a tie, the President gets to choose anyone he wants to be the newly elected President (doesn't even have to be a candidate).
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Either that or the House of Representatives gets to break the tie, with each state getting one vote.
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05-18-2008, 07:34 PM
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#18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignignokt
A) He didn't lose by double digits
B) I guess McCain is arrogant if he believes he will win in any of these states:
Iowa
Wyoming - McCain
Michigan - Obama
Nevada - McCain
Maine - Obama
Alabama -McCain
Alaska - McCain
Arkansas - McCain
Colorado - Obama?
Georgia - McCain
Massachusetts - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Montana - McCain
North Dakota - McCain
Tennessee - McCain
Utah- McCain
West Virginia- McCain
Kansas - McCain
Louisiana- McCain
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__________________
$400B deficit for Bush's successor.
Progressives: Forward.Thinking.
"We are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead." -- Thomas Jefferson
" ...be the change you wish to see in the world." -- Gandhi
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05-18-2008, 07:35 PM
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#19 (permalink)
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If its a VP from Virginia look for Governor Tim Kaine, Democrat, Roman Catholic.
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: One National Championship, 4 trips to the Final Four, Seven Sweet Sixteens, 11 straight trips to NCAA Tournament, 4 Big Ten Championships. Yeah, we'll keep him.
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05-18-2008, 07:37 PM
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#20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #1
I think McCain takes Virginia, Nevada, Ohio
I think Obama takes Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico
Leaving the Dems with 269, and the GOP with 269 |
This is why Obama's running mate needs to be from a swing state.
__________________
$400B deficit for Bush's successor.
Progressives: Forward.Thinking.
"We are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead." -- Thomas Jefferson
" ...be the change you wish to see in the world." -- Gandhi
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05-19-2008, 12:44 AM
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#21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Great Danton
In the instance of a tie, the President gets to choose anyone he wants to be the newly elected President (doesn't even have to be a candidate).
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You. Are. Retarded.
Tie means a Dem president.
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Originally Posted by LA_Spartan
Downtown RO is liberal, but vibrators can't vote.
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05-19-2008, 01:12 AM
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#22 (permalink)
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__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by LA_Spartan
Downtown RO is liberal, but vibrators can't vote.
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05-19-2008, 11:27 AM
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#23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by negreen
I stick to my prediction. McCain will be lucky to win 5 states.
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I stick to mine, McCain wins 280 or better. If McCain can keep from totally pissing off the conservatives he wins by bigger numbers than that. Bushes low numbers are as much his spending habits as anything the neoleftists have done. A solid campaign by McCain he wins big. Obama is a lightweight politically.
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