Great article about the "Bradley Effect"

[Vlad_the_Impaler]

Do voters lie about racial concerns? - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

My own guesstimate is that we need to subtract 3 to 4 points from Obama in the national polls. If he's up by 8 or more going into November 4th, he's in good shape. Anything less than that is a toss-up.

[MSU316L]

Originally Posted by Vlad_the_Impaler

Do voters lie about racial concerns? - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

My own guestimate is that we need to subtract 3 to 4 points from Obama in the national polls. If he's up by 8 or more going into November 4th, he's in good shape. Anything less than that is a toss-up.

This is my guess, there may be a Bradley Effect, I am no expert but I think we have progressed a bit more as a nation since we saw it's last major effect.

There is a great possibility that pollsters are underestimating the:
1) Youth Vote
2) Black Vote
3) New Voter Registration
4) Cell Phone Vote

With these factors, there is a possibility of Obama actually UNDERperforming in the polls, include the Bradley Effect in this mix and the negate each other.

[MattR644]

Originally Posted by Vlad_the_Impaler

Do voters lie about racial concerns? - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

My own guesstimate is that we need to subtract 3 to 4 points from Obama in the national polls. If he's up by 8 or more going into November 4th, he's in good shape. Anything less than that is a toss-up.

I think obviously there will be some effect, but I also think we're living in a different world now. The Bradley election was 26 years ago...I'm not saying there's not still plenty of racism out there, but a 30 year old in 1982 was alive for and remembered the civil rights movement. For a 30 year old today, that's something from the history books. So I think it'll be a couple points, but won't be a major factor (though obviously it will vary by state).

[Ignignokt]

Originally Posted by Vlad_the_Impaler

Do voters lie about racial concerns? - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

My own guesstimate is that we need to subtract 3 to 4 points from Obama in the national polls. If he's up by 8 or more going into November 4th, he's in good shape. Anything less than that is a toss-up.

An instance of the Bradley Effect hasn't been seen for almost 20 years. Obama himself has not seen it, and has already participated in an election in every state in the country. The media (and delusional idiots like #1 who can't admit he's wrong) need to push the story that the election is actually close even when every poll says otherwise.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Originally Posted by MSU316L

This is my guess, there may be a Bradley Effect, I am no expert but I think we have progressed a bit more as a nation since we saw it's last major effect.

There is a great possibility that pollsters are underestimating the:
1) Youth Vote
2) Black Vote
3) New Voter Registration
4) Cell Phone Vote

With these factors, there is a possibility of Obama actually UNDERperforming in the polls, include the Bradley Effect in this mix and the negate each other.

Show me a politician counting on the Youth Vote and I'll show you a loser.

[MSU316L]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

Show me a politician counting on the Youth Vote and I'll show you a loser.

First of all, you're missing the point. It would be nice if you'd address my post in it's entirety instead of cherry picking.

Obama is not depending on the youth vote. Additionally, the 18-29 y/o population was 4 years younger last elelction. Cell phones are much more popular, and most youth these days (and young professionals) do not have landlines, thus, they are not being polled by every pollster. Since the youth vote favors Obama 2:1, something has to be said about this.

Furthermore, youth vote increased 52%, that's right, 52% as a share of the Democratic primary electorate.

If we see a 52% incease in the Dem primaries, this is obviously going to translate into a higher youth vote in the general election.

[Ignignokt]

Originally Posted by DantonIzzo

I will say this, though -- I was proud that a predominantly-white state like mine, Iowa, got smart and pushed aside Clinton and Edwards during the primary season to kick off Obama's run. Obama's also up relatively big here over McCain. Gives me some kind of hope that maybe we're turning the corner and this stupid **** doesn't apply anymore.

Iowa's caucus singlehandedly disproves all the BS "theories" espoused by those desperate to call this a close race. The youth vote turned out HUGE and carried Obama to victory AND rural white people voted for a black guy. But you really can't disprove the "Bradley Effect" since it is not based on proof to begin with.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Originally Posted by Ignignokt

Iowa's caucus singlehandedly disproves all the BS "theories" espoused by those desperate to call this a close race. The youth vote turned out HUGE and carried Obama to victory AND rural white people voted for a black guy. But you really can't disprove the "Bradley Effect" since it is not based on proof to begin with.

Barry got 35% of the Dem caucus vote and you're hailing that as the great white victory?

You'd be better off citing his victory in the Utah primary.

[lars]

Within the Obama campaign they are estimated that 5% of support will not be there do to the Bradley effect. So they have to get above a 5% lead to feel like they are actually winning a state. Right now they are running about 7-8% up in most of the key states so they are feeling good.

Unless McCain makes some drastic move or a foreign crisis hits..this thing is over. Obama is the next president. With Obama, Biden and Pelosi leading we will see a new socialist state with taxes the likes of which our parents and grandparents wouldn't recognize as the United State of America.

The only 'good thing' (if you can really call it that) is that after 4 years of higher taxes, a deep recession, and overwhelming debt on top of the 53 trillion of future entitlement obligations that we have already. Obama will either bring the US to collapse (like the soviet Union) or people will revolt to bring in real fiscal conservatives to govt. I am praying for the latter.

[Jersey Spartan]

^^^

You are wrong. The bradley effect is overblown. Just wait and see.