tOfficial Trading and Investing Thread (NO POLITICS)

Todd Farkman · 12-01-2008, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeHannen

Silver just gapped down close to $1 this morning. The charts just signaled an island reversal, indicating silver is likely to break support around $9 and go lower.

Silver has giving so many false indicators that it is a crap shoot. I was hoping to hold on through expiration and delivery, but I'll take my loss and watch from the sidelines. Every time Silver has showed strength, the metal has been sold since July. I wonder if CM is in a bunker somewhere.

we're headed for some major ass deflation. gold/silver, commodities are looking bad with everything else. There isn't demand....for anything right now.

aside from shorting stocks, I'm not sure what i would do with my money other than nothing

Todd Farkman · 12-01-2008, 03:52 PM

LOL. And SKF up 26.9%!

Riding that stock up and down could make you some good money!

chachi · 12-01-2008, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd Farkman

LOL. And SKF up 26.9%!

Riding that stock up and down could make you some good money!

The thing that blows about it is the top is easier to call than the bottom and...

you can never sell the damn thing short... "No shares available..."

Just like $270 was a sell.. under $140 was a buy... $270 was WAY more obvious.

Grtfmsu · 12-01-2008, 05:26 PM

Is it just a coincidence that the start of this thread on the RCMB has pretty much gone hand in hand with a massive bear market.

DeHannen · 12-01-2008, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chachi

The thing that blows about it is the top is easier to call than the bottom and...

you can never sell the damn thing short... "No shares available..."

Just like $270 was a sell.. under $140 was a buy... $270 was WAY more obvious.

Buy PUTS. You pay a slight premium, but in this market, if you choose correctly you will make it up big time.

chachi · 12-01-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeHannen

Buy PUTS. You pay a slight premium, but in this market, if you choose correctly you will make it up big time.

I have and made money but they are not paying as they should lately... to many peeps on that...

Crazy part is that you can buy the hell out of a fund that seems to be able to infintiely short banks BUT, you can't short the fund? Odd.

ChicagoMark · 12-02-2008, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd Farkman

we're headed for some major ass deflation. gold/silver, commodities are looking bad with everything else. There isn't demand....for anything right now.

If that is the case, how would you explain this?

The WGC said demand for gold reached an all-time quarterly record of $32bn between July and September as investors around the world sought refuge from the global financial meltdown. This was 45pc higher than the previous record in the second quarter of 2008.

Demand for gold via exchange traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins was the biggest contributor to overall demand during the quarter. The figures show investment demand from private investors rose by 121pc to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and US markets. The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven.

Overall, the third quarter saw Europe reach an all-time record of 51 tonnes of bar and coin buying and France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...time-high.html

Gold is hitting record prices against many currencies.

tjmania · 12-02-2008, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Todd Farkman

we're headed for some major ass deflation. gold/silver, commodities are looking bad with everything else. There isn't demand....for anything right now.

aside from shorting stocks, I'm not sure what i would do with my money other than nothing

disagree.

it may look like deflation but it is only price contraction.

right now, we havs a liquidity issue. everything is being sold to buy negative T-bills.

DeHannen · 12-02-2008, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoMark

Gold is hitting record prices against many currencies, just not the US dollar.

It's just that the US dollar is rising above everything else.

ChicagoMark · 12-02-2008, 09:29 AM

Demand for metals hasn't been this high in decades...if ever. Prices were $3.50 over spot.

Quote:

APMEX kicked off our 12 Days of Christmas promotion on Cyber Monday and the results have been phenomenal. We expected this would be a great sale on a very popular item, but didn’t expect the flood of customers. It was like watching the flood of people at Wal-Mart on Black Friday looking for flat panel TV’s.

Amazingly, we sold out of our supply of 200,000 Silver American eagles within the span of 24 hours!

A huge number of customers flooded the site, causing the shopping cart system to crash earlier in the day. With our site down, customers lined up on the phone to place their orders. Needless to say, our trading department was a madhouse. Phones were ringing off the hook from the colossal amounts of orders.

While we would have liked to be able to return everyone’s calls, the sheer volume made this impossible. We’re trying our best to order more, but at this point we can’t make any guarantees. Be sure and check back with us regularly. We’ll keep you updated on events as they develop.

As a substitution we have reduced the price of 2009 Silver Maple Leafs to $3.49 over spot in any quantity while supplies last.

200,000 Silver American Eagles Sold Out in 24 Hours… Amazing! | APMEX News Blog

Negotiator · 12-03-2008, 11:09 AM

SKF in four full trading days:

165 to 135 to 180 to 155 to 175 to 150 to 160 to 140.

ChicagoMark · 12-04-2008, 12:32 AM

I have posted the Dow/Gold ratio chart many times on this site because it is so illustrative of the change in investor behavior and market dynamics. We have paper bull markets and commodity bull markets. In 2000 the smart trade was to sell the Dow and buy Gold. For my money I am betting that this ratio will once again get to 1:1. Probably in the range of 3000 - 5000. This chart is from:

Can The Fed Stave Off Another "Great Depression"? | Elliott Wave International

DeHannen · 12-04-2008, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Negotiator

SKF in four full trading days:

165 to 135 to 180 to 155 to 175 to 150 to 160 to 140.

I traded SKF today and nearly crapped my pants. I bought (10) 130 DEC CALLS at $17.60 around 1:00 today. SKF was trading at $129 after opening around $140. I figured I would ride the CALL until SKF went below $127, which could be a matter of seconds, but the short term chart looked good. By 1:30 things are looking good, SKF gets up to $134 and my calls are now worth $19. I figure I would try to ride SKF to $140 a share.

I GO TO GET LUNCH.

I come back SKF is down to $124 and the call is trading around $14

After a second to catch my breath, I get

. There is no way I am going to be the only person on the face of the earth to short a financial and lose money this year. I keep the position. Definitely not smart, in that emotion played in my decision and my exit point was past and I did not stay disciplined.

I do some work and check the position around 3:00. SKF is at $135 and the calls are trading around $20.

I could not log on fast enough to sell. Out at $20.10

SKF ends up the day around $140 with the calls topping out at $24. I do not feel bad at all.

I will look to establish a new position tomorrow, because it was so much fun.