tOfficial Election '09 Thread

Negotiator · 11-04-2009, 01:40 AM

With all the talk of playing cards in relation to the election, this is where my faaaaabulous friends would probably make a suicide queens reference, at least given the Maine results. 52-48 in favor of repealing Maine's same-sex marriage legislation with about 80% of districts reporting.

Sawtooth Spartan · 11-04-2009, 02:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gerrard06

The new york congressional race was a special election. for a one-year term.

Versus two governor races of big states.

Obviously the latter was and is a much bigger deal.

Not so fast, my friend ... it's a year into Dem power and the GOP still loses this seat for the first time since the 1800s.

Truth be known, none of these three outcomes is going to change anybody's lives.

Cym Jim · 11-04-2009, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Negotiator

52-48 in favor of repealing Maine's same-sex marriage legislation with about 80% of districts reporting.

Yuck, not surprising. If they didn't get it this time, they'd just keep throwing money at it until they did. Did you see any of the commercials the scaries were running? Truly hate-filled stuff. They'll come for you children!

Of course, that works, in America.

The Texan lezzer is doing well though, and the Washington unions are looking good

ricola · 11-04-2009, 05:35 AM

Looks like the Democrats gained another seat in congress. Let's hope republicans keep forcing moderates out of their party.

irishmick79 · 11-04-2009, 07:57 AM

I'm a bit surprised about the Maine referendum, considering that the anti-gay marriage folks were heavily dependent on out-of-state funds. Virginia and New Jersey are terrible bellweathers and the results there, while certainly encouraging for the republicans, probably don't reflect the national attitude as much as they would like to claim. It's still good in the sense that with the right messaging and candidates, the GOP can certainly run strong against the incumbents.

The result in NY-23rd though should give some conservatives a bit of pause. It's probably a bad idea to be pushing out the candidate picked by the local party leaders in favor of somebody with more appeal at the national level, since the local dynamics of a particular district could wind up getting ignored. I think that's clearly what happened with Hoffman, who didn't have great command of the local issues. If the conservatives are going to start winning, they really need to step back, focus on recruiting candidates well, and letting the organization build from the ground up.

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 08:42 AM

Democrats picked up a seat in the United States House of Representatives..

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

Bobby makes me laugh.

you're a great American..

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stats

Christie introduced with Springsteen blaring.

which tune were they playing?

Dr. Strangelove · 11-04-2009, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by irishmick79

I'm a bit surprised about the Maine referendum, considering that the anti-gay marriage folks were heavily dependent on out-of-state funds. Virginia and New Jersey are terrible bellweathers and the results there, while certainly encouraging for the republicans, probably don't reflect the national attitude as much as they would like to claim. It's still good in the sense that with the right messaging and candidates, the GOP can certainly run strong against the incumbents.

The result in NY-23rd though should give some conservatives a bit of pause. It's probably a bad idea to be pushing out the candidate picked by the local party leaders in favor of somebody with more appeal at the national level, since the local dynamics of a particular district could wind up getting ignored. I think that's clearly what happened with Hoffman, who didn't have great command of the local issues. If the conservatives are going to start winning, they really need to step back, focus on recruiting candidates well, and letting the organization build from the ground up.

The problem was the timing in NY-23. Too compressed of time frame for a 3rd Party to win especially when the RINO endorses the Dem.

Redwingenator · 11-04-2009, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

The problem was the timing in NY-23. Too compressed of time frame for a 3rd Party to win especially when the RINO endorses the Dem.

What a weird situation. The GOP quits because the 3rd party candidate has substantially more support, then she starts campaigning for the dem. This is a common problem with having a 3rd party as it typically splits the republican vote.

irishmick79 · 11-04-2009, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redwingenator

What a weird situation. The GOP quits because the 3rd party candidate has substantially more support, then she starts campaigning for the dem. This is a common problem with having a 3rd party as it typically splits the republican vote.

Which is why the GOP needs to get their house in order soon. They can't have this circular firing squad going on into 2010 if they want to knock off vulnerable dems in congress. They need to look like they've got a plan to fix the country's problems, and the infighting sure doesn't help them in that department.

Dr. Strangelove · 11-04-2009, 10:09 AM

There is obviously tension and competition inside the GOP in regards to the Conservative and moderate wings (the Dems have many of the same issues between their liberals and moderates).

I know that the Dems are trying to spin it as GOP Civil War - I think they're overstating it.

The NY-23 timing did not allow the GOP to address these issues in a primary situation. The leadership picked a RINO and the base freaked out.

I think that in 2010 you'll see some spirited GOP primaries (FL Senate, TX Governor to name two) but that those differences should be ironed out or at least papered over by the General.

The GOP should be primed to pick up a number of House seats, maybe a Senate seat or two and probably a handful of Governorships.

MichState04 · 11-04-2009, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Sakimano

Democrats picked up a seat in the United States House of Representatives..

I don't think you are going to be a happy guy on 11/2/10. The GOP is going to pick up a decent number of seats, the question is how many.

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichState04

I don't think you are going to be a happy guy on 11/2/10.

dude, I'm always a happy guy...

Quote:

The GOP is going to pick up a decent number of seats, the question is how many.

of course party in the minority will pick up some seats.. like all non-presidential election years...

I'm guessing around 20-24 in the house and 3-4 in the senate.

danb · 11-04-2009, 11:16 AM

The gay marriage radicals were pointing to a large turnout as a harbinger for finally breaking their losing streak, but alas, common sense prevails again. This in the state that delivers Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

Dejection fills ballroom after gay marriage vote - Yahoo! News

ninowesco · 11-04-2009, 11:17 AM

who cares

Compound · 11-04-2009, 11:17 AM

Why is it important to you that gay people don't get married?

Zakath · 11-04-2009, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

The GOP should be primed to pick up a number of House seats, maybe a Senate seat or two and probably a handful of Governorships.

House seats are tougher to predict, but you can still expect 95%+ of incumbents to get re-elected due to the gerrymandering that always goes on in the state legislatures to protect both parties. There will be the typical 30-35 seats that are always up for grabs that moved to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 that will start to move back to the middle.

The Senate seats in 2010 are really a mixed bag. Interesting that the former seats of both the President and the Vice-President (a full term in IL, a 4-year term in DE) are considered either toss-ups or leaning Republican at this point (especially if Mike Castle runs for the DE seat), which are the only 2 "retiring" Democrats. There are 6 retiring Republicans (FL, KS, KY, MO, NH, OH) where conventional wisdom seems to be that the first two are pretty safe, the second two are toss-ups and they'll lose at least one, if not both, of the last two. The other seats to really watch will be AR (Blanche Lincoln), CT (Chris Dodd), LA (David Vitter), NV (Harry Reid), ND (Byron Dorgan), and PA (Arlen Specter).

Governorships play more on local issues, but there are 37 up in 2010. 19 or 20 of them won't have an incumbent, due to term limits or retirements (WY is still an issue): KS, ME, MI, NM, OK, OR, PA, TN, and WI for the Democrats; AL, CA, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, SC, SD, and VT for the Republicans. The others: Dem incumbent - AR, CO, IL, IA, MD, MA, NH, NY, OH; Rep incumbent - AK, AZ, CT, ID, NE, NV, TX, UT. No question that the CA, IL, NY, and TX races are going to draw the most attention (NY for the possible ouster of an unpopular governor by his own party, TX for a intraparty fight between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison, CA because it's a mess, and IL because a large number of IL governors end up in jail). Republicans would seem to have a good shot of taking the KS, TN, and WY seats, while Democrats look to pick up CA, HI, and VT. Most political reports have a lot of states in the toss-up category at this point.

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danb

The gay marriage radicals were pointing to a large turnout as a harbinger for finally breaking their losing streak, but alas, common sense prevails again. This in the state that delivers Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

Dejection fills ballroom after gay marriage vote - Yahoo! News

yet another victory for President Obama.

Dr. Strangelove · 11-04-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danb

Maine voters make it Traditional Marriage 31 Gay Marriage 0

I had Traditional Marriage and I gave 30 points.

Cym Jim · 11-04-2009, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Sakimano

yet another victory for President Obama.

tuff bob · 11-04-2009, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpartyOnInChitown

It's still amazing Blago got elected twice. Of course the second time he was running he was under investigation by the FBI and still won..

One of the good things about living in liberal Illinois, you get to say "you voted for Blago twice" to those Obamanaics

Bob Sakimano · 11-04-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cym Jim

that goddamn socialist, kenyan born nazi.. wants to change the very fiber of our beautiful country.. the country that US soliders gave their lives for... who the hell is he to institute his goddam views of socialism, nazism, maoism, communism, queer-lovin' on us god-fearin' Americans??

oh.. he doesn't support gay marriage?

nevermind....

danb · 11-04-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

I had Traditional Marriage and I gave 30 points.

Good thing the homophobes made their PAT.

SpartyOnInChitown · 11-04-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuff bob

One of the good things about living in liberal Illinois, you get to say "you voted for Blago twice" to those Obamanaics

I'm looking forward to Blago's trial as I think he's too delusional to plead out. It's going to be an absolute circus.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zakath

House seats are tougher to predict, but you can still expect 95%+ of incumbents to get re-elected due to the gerrymandering that always goes on in the state legislatures to protect both parties. There will be the typical 30-35 seats that are always up for grabs that moved to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 that will start to move back to the middle.

The Senate seats in 2010 are really a mixed bag. Interesting that the former seats of both the President and the Vice-President (a full term in IL, a 4-year term in DE) are considered either toss-ups or leaning Republican at this point (especially if Mike Castle runs for the DE seat), which are the only 2 "retiring" Democrats. There are 6 retiring Republicans (FL, KS, KY, MO, NH, OH) where conventional wisdom seems to be that the first two are pretty safe, the second two are toss-ups and they'll lose at least one, if not both, of the last two. The other seats to really watch will be AR (Blanche Lincoln), CT (Chris Dodd), LA (David Vitter), NV (Harry Reid), ND (Byron Dorgan), and PA (Arlen Specter).

Governorships play more on local issues, but there are 37 up in 2010. 19 or 20 of them won't have an incumbent, due to term limits or retirements (WY is still an issue): KS, ME, MI, NM, OK, OR, PA, TN, and WI for the Democrats; AL, CA, FL, GA, HI, MN, RI, SC, SD, and VT for the Republicans. The others: Dem incumbent - AR, CO, IL, IA, MD, MA, NH, NY, OH; Rep incumbent - AK, AZ, CT, ID, NE, NV, TX, UT. No question that the CA, IL, NY, and TX races are going to draw the most attention (NY for the possible ouster of an unpopular governor by his own party, TX for a inter-party fight between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison, CA because it's a mess, and IL because a large number of IL governors end up in jail). Republicans would seem to have a good shot of taking the KS, TN, and WY seats, while Democrats look to pick up CA, HI, and VT. Most political reports have a lot of states in the toss-up category at this point.

It's still early, but I expect Gov. Pat Quinn to hold on to the governor's seat in IL. The Republican primary is going to be brutal while Quinn only has to fend off Dan Hynes, which I don't think is going to be a problem. Quinn should end up with a big advantage in campaign chedda and of course there is the advantage he gets as an incumbent. Of course Quinn also has the endorsement of Cook County Democrats, which also is a big help.

Another advantage Quinn has is that Blago was horrible in every respect. Blagojevich ****ed up so badly that the early part of the Quinn Administration was actually spent trying to figure out how bad of a state Illinois is in. Blago kept Quinn in the dark on a lot of things. Obviously things are pretty bad in IL and Quinn would have had to put in a concerted effort to actually make things worse.