tOfficial Election '09 Thread

[GRR Spartan]

Virginia rarely has a governor whose in the same party as a sitting president.

Corzine was disliked but the single issue that loses both parties the NJ governor's mansion is the monstrous NJ property taxes. We have seen 30-40 years of governors elected promising to change the tax structure. I have a friend who took a new job in the NC golden triangle 2 years ago. It took him almost 15 months to sell his home in Toms River but his new (larger/more expensive) North Carolina home's property taxes were 1/3rd of his old NJ taxes.

The NY Congressional race just proves again all politics are local. If the GOP loses control to the conservative DC insiders and talking heads the potential mid term gains will be smaller.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Originally Posted by danb

Good thing the homophobes made their PAT.

Well part of the problem is the Gay Marriage team doesn't have any tight ends.

[irishmick79]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

Well part of the problem is the Gay Marriage team doesn't have any tight ends.

Doesn't matter - that line still gets a ton of penetration.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Originally Posted by irishmick79

Doesn't matter - that line still gets a ton of penetration.

With as many wide receivers as they have you would think they would be able to find a few that didn't let balls bounce off their chin.

[Bob Sakimano]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

Well part of the problem is the Gay Marriage team doesn't have any tight ends.

but they have wide receivers that can go deep...

[tuff bob]

[MSchott]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

There is obviously tension and competition inside the GOP in regards to the Conservative and moderate wings (the Dems have many of the same issues between their liberals and moderates).

I know that the Dems are trying to spin it as GOP Civil War - I think they're overstating it.

The NY-23 timing did not allow the GOP to address these issues in a primary situation. The leadership picked a RINO and the base freaked out.

I think that in 2010 you'll see some spirited GOP primaries (FL Senate, TX Governor to name two) but that those differences should be ironed out or at least papered over by the General.

The GOP should be primed to pick up a number of House seats, maybe a Senate seat or two and probably a handful of Governorships.

Characterizing NY-23 as symbolic of a civil war is a bit strong but there's no denying that the party shot themselves in the foot and this is symptomatic of a larger problem.

I heard an interview with Republican Minnesota Governor and reported 2012 Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty where he basically said if Olympia Snow from Maine doesn't vote with the party then he'd have a hard time considering her a republican. WTH?

Personally I think a rebellion by centrist republicans would be good for the party. They need to do something about the all too powerful minority in the party that is too far right and outside of the mainstream of this country.

[danb]

Well, at least Obama can take comfort in knowing Maine voters agree with him on the issue.

[Gotham_Spartan]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

The problem was the timing in NY-23. Too compressed of time frame for a 3rd Party to win especially when the RINO endorses the Dem.

No, there were other issues:

Remember, in upstate New York, much Republicanism is still for the most part close to the Lincoln-T. Roosevelt-Dewey-Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republicanism: conservative on law and order issues and balancing the budget, but moderate even on the issue of taxes and government size and definitely moderate on social issues, physical or at least philosophical descendants of people who would have supported the underground railroad. If you want an example of somebody they would really like, look to the Governor of Montana -- a Democrat. They generally like Giuliani, who spent most of his career pro-immigration, pro-abortion rights, even pro-gay rights, and never made a move to cut any social programs. They distrust people who are too insistent on government preaching about how people should lead their lives. I have a lot of Republican relatives upstate, socially conservative Catholics, who in many respects view the Repuiblican alliance with fundamentalist Protestants with considerable distaste. Also, Hillary did a masterful job of serving upstate New York while Senator and resulted in a lot of people up there voting for a Democrat for a major office for the first time in their lives. When she ran for re-election as Senator, she carried counties up there that a statewide Democratic candidate had never carried since the Civil War. The economy up there sucks, and some middle class people view the situation there as the product of Republican policies that reward other parts of the country at their expense, similar to the attitudes that resulted in Obama carrying Ohio and Indiana.

I took a look at the election returns up there. The Dem did best in the counties at the southern part of the district, near Utica and Syracuse, areas formerly rural that in recent years have become more exurban, even suburban, in other words, much more moderate. Also, the conservative said he would oppose all earmarks, and earmarks have been a big part of keeping Fort Drum going, which is one of the larger employers in the southern part of the district, so at least some of the army types who would have otherwise been reliable Republican voters probably voted their own economic interest.

Note that the Dem is an Air Force veteran from Plattsburgh, where there's an Air Force base, so he probably picked up votes in that area either because he's a vet or because he's a hometown boy or both, votes that a Dem would otherwise almost never get.

Finally, the last Democrat who represented this district left office in 1857. The Republican Party was founded in 1856, and had held that seat ever since.

Empire Stately yours,

[Zakath]

Originally Posted by SpartyOnInChitown

It's still early, but I expect Gov. Pat Quinn to hold on to the governor's seat in IL. The Republican primary is going to be brutal while Quinn only has to fend off Dan Hynes, which I don't think is going to be a problem. Quinn should end up with a big advantage in campaign chedda and of course there is the advantage he gets as an incumbent. Of course Quinn also has the endorsement of Cook County Democrats, which also is a big help.

Another advantage Quinn has is that Blago was horrible in every respect. Blagojevich ****ed up so badly that the early part of the Quinn Administration was actually spent trying to figure out how bad of a state Illinois is in. Blago kept Quinn in the dark on a lot of things. Obviously things are pretty bad in IL and Quinn would have had to put in a concerted effort to actually make things worse.

If I had to bet, I'd say that the Democrats are going to lose either the Senate seat or the governorship, but not both. Wouldn't bet the house money, but the Senate seat is the more likely one for them to lose.

[SpartyOnInChitown]

Originally Posted by Zakath

If I had to bet, I'd say that the Democrats are going to lose either the Senate seat or the governorship, but not both. Wouldn't bet the house money, but the Senate seat is the more likely one for them to lose.

Giannoulias will probably win the Senate seat. He has a ton of money to spend. However, it wouldn't greatly surprise me to see Kirk win.

[Zakath]

Originally Posted by SpartyOnInChitown

Giannoulias will probably win the Senate seat. He has a ton of money to spend. However, it wouldn't greatly surprise me to see Kirk win.

Kirk has a shot because he already represents the north suburbs of Chicago, so he's not going to be an unknown to voters there. Downstate is mostly Republican anyway, so he'll be able to fight for the suburban voters.

That's probably the reason almost all of the non-partisan rating agencies have the Illinois Senate race as a toss-up (well, that and the Blago-Burris *****).

[SpartyOnInChitown]

Originally Posted by Zakath

Kirk has a shot because he already represents the north suburbs of Chicago, so he's not going to be an unknown to voters there. Downstate is mostly Republican anyway, so he'll be able to fight for the suburban voters.

That's probably the reason almost all of the non-partisan rating agencies have the Illinois Senate race as a toss-up (well, that and the Blago-Burris *****).

Considering how badly George Ryan ****ed up, it is absolutely amazing that Blago was not only unable to keep his hand out of the cookie jar, but was so corrupt that he apparently tried to shake down a children's hospital and sell Obama's Senate seat. How can you screw up that badly after what George Ryan pulled? All Blago had to do to be considered a better governor than Ryan was to not commit a crime and he couldn't even do that.

[Stats]

Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove

I had Traditional Marriage and I gave 30 points.

Can we get vBookie action on the next state to have a referendum on this subject?

[Booyah]

Yawn. The party that won the White House one year has lost gubernatorial contests the next year in eight consecutive elections in Virginia, and in New Jersey the past five.

[Bob Sakimano]

Originally Posted by Booyah

Yawn. The party that won the White House one year has lost gubernatorial contests the next year in eight consecutive elections in Virginia, and in New Jersey the past five.

but there is a conservative groundswell....

the mainstream media said so!